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Join the Football Survivor Pool

The survivor pool concept is a simple one: Don’t. Ever. Lose.

But picking a different winner every week presents some challenges for obvious reasons. You can’t take the same team twice, so eventually you’ll have to gamble on some marginal squads. No team finishes the 16-game NFL season without picking up at least one win, so you can’t just take whoever plays the Cincinnati Bengals every week. And let’s remember – it’s freakin’ football – so “Any Given Sunday” and all that jazz is in play, big time.

For the most part, I like to stay away from division games and low-scoring, defense-oriented teams, especially toward the beginning of the season, but sometimes you have to take a chance. Week 1 has some tough games, so you’ll have to trust the general projections we’ve all seen in season previews and tumble into the madness headlong. With that said, let’s take a gander at my pick suggestions for the first slate of games:

 
Pick #3: Arizona Cardinals over Carolina Panthers

The revolution has started in Phoenix. With the addition of Kevin Kolb, the Arizona Cardinals added a strong, accurate arm that can supplement a talented receiving corps. The Arizona defense is dynamic, flexible and adept at creating turnovers – a perfect storm for this matchup against a rudderless Carolina Panthers squad. Relying on a largely untested QB (Kolb) in a new city isn’t my first choice, but if you’re brave enough to avoid the following powerhouse AFC teams (New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers) at the outset of your survivor journey, you can’t do much better than the capable Cards at home.

 
Pick #2: New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins

The Pats may be on the road and facing a division rival, but they’re still the Pats – a team that made big strides in shoring up their offensive and defensive ranks in the offseason. While it’s a pretty safe bet that the Pats take this one, I’d look elsewhere – saving this juggernaut for a future week when your options are a little more limited.

 
Pick #1: San Diego Chargers over Minnesota Vikings

The Chargers tend to start off a little slow, but this is still a lock. The Vikings have a new old quarterback, a debilitated offensive line, and will most likely struggle to put together a winning season. Donovan McNabb is still talented and can throw the long ball, but he’ll see loads of pressure from the diabolical Chargers pass rush. Offensively, there are only a couple teams with as much firepower as San Diego. QB Philip Rivers is poised for an MVP-caliber season, and the full range of weapons he commands (Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, etc.) is on another level. Mark it down.

We don’t have a single person who picked the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl although a handful have them getting there. We have seven entries picking the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the big game, two on the Chicago Bears and even one single entry picking the New York Jets to win it all. Nice job JLPejic (#2). I’m thinking Jets fan there, no other way to explain it.

At this point there are too many scenarios to figure out our possible top three, but I will make two observations. First, jfortgomjay and statennick aren’t going to hang on to their current top spot, and snowman222 is in trouble too unless the Packers win. These guys might not even finish in the money except snowman if the Packers win it all.

Second, I picked the Steelers to win it all, but safe to say there is no way I finish in the top three. After a horrible Wild-Card Weekend, I am sixth amongst the seven Steelers will win the Super Bowl entries. It is all for pride at this point.

Now, on to this weekend’s Conference Championship games. The Packers-Bears game is shaping up to be one for the ages. Hard to believe these teams with their respective long histories have only faced each other one time in the playoffs! And that game was in 1941! Talk about trading off one team being good, the other being terrible, and back and forth for sixty years.

Tough, tough picks this week. I recorded another podcast with Tony Ricciardi and Chris Prospero on Thursday, which you can listen to right here. Tony picks the Jets because he hates the Steelers. Chris and I pick the Steelers. Tony and Chris pick the Packers and I pick the Bears. It is all there plus some prop bets for the two games. Picks of course, from the podcast as well as in this post, are for entertainment purposes only. So let’s get to it why I like the Bears and Steelers to meet in Dallas in two weeks.

 
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Sunday January 23 at 3:00pm Eastern
Line: Packers -3.5 Over/Under: 43 (lines from Intertops.com)

I could really flip a coin on this one as to who is going to ultimately win the game and punch their ticket to get to the Super Bowl. The Packers are playing great. They dominated the Falcons in one of those games where they got rolling and the Falcons couldn’t stop them. The Bears, even though the score got a little closer at the end, walked over the Seahawks which is pretty much what was expected going in.

Both teams have great defenses, something not always said about the Packers but they’ve really turned it on recently, especially with the return of Cullen Jenkins and play of Tramon Williams. In terms of offense I’d say there is a lot more trust Aaron Rodgers and the Pack will perform as expected then Jay Cutler’s Bears, but both are certainly capable of playing well. Rodgers isn’t immune to mistakes and Cutler is a bit of a wild-card. I give the edge to the Bears running game vs. the Pack as opposed to the other way around, even with the coming out party for James Starks. Special teams advantage goes to the Bears.

Statistically, the Packers are better than the Bears in recent weeks in most categories, but given these teams know each other so well much like the Steelers-Baltimore Ravens last week, and the Bears have home field, I feel a 3.5 edge to the Packers a little much. This one could easily be decided by a field goal or less. I’m picking the Bears to win it, but much prefer the point spread to the straight up prediction.

I really like the under 43 as the betting public seems to be putting a lot of stock into the offenses on each side of this game, and not as much due credit to the defenses. These teams played to scores of 20-17 at Chicago (Week 3) and 10-3 at Green Bay (Week 17) this season, and in fact their past seven games played since 2007 all finished under 43.

Pick: Bears . . . Bet: Bears +3.5 and Under 43

 
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday January 23 at 6:30pm Eastern
Line: Steelers -3.5 -115 Over/Under: 38.5

Predicting this game is less, “these teams are so close” as it is, “who knows what each team is going to bring to the table.” The Jets shocked the country last week knocking off the previously unstoppable Patriots, and it wasn’t luck that won the day. It was excellent game planning and execution that pressured Tom Brady and rendered that offense very pedestrian. Plus, the Jets offense converted touchdowns with a balanced running game and efficient if unspectacular play from Mark Sanchez. What a catch by Santonio Holmes in the corner of the end zone! Like we had seen something like that before from him…

The Steelers, facing their arch-rival, did not look good through the first half of their game. They were down 21-7 and the Ravens were in control. Then the Ravens offense essentially gave the game away with a horrible third quarter, fumbling and then throwing a pick in their end of the field on back-to-back series. The Steelers took advantage and the Ravens could never get it back.

So you see the conundrum with this game. The Jets played a great 60 minute game last week, while the Steelers did not. The Steelers are generally considered better than the Jets. Did the Jets play their Super Bowl last week, much like the Seahawks when they knocked off the New Orleans Saints? The Jets beat the Steelers in mid-December, 22-17 at Heinz Field.

I’m picking the Steelers, because their defense should rise to the occasion against the Jets, grinding the run to a hault and pressuring Sanchez like he’s rarely experienced. After the scare last week, the Steelers should be on their game early. Ben Roethlisberger should perform better than Brady as he can move around better to avoid the pressure, while allowing his receivers with deeper speed than the Pats stretch the field, thin out the defense and get open. The Jets have a special teams advantage which the Steelers need to be wary of allowing a punt or kickoff return TD. I’m picking the Steelers, but I expect another close one.

Pick: Steelers . . . Bet: Pass

Enjoy the games!

My bet on the Colts -2.5 was a no-go even before the Jets won it on Nick Folk’s game winning field goal at the final whistle. This may be blasphemy, but Peyton Manning follows the “take what the defense gives you” game plan way too far. He isn’t aggressive enough! Fortunately he did get Antonio Cromartie to give up some space and as a result some big plays to Pierre Garcon. I didn’t see Manning challenging the Jets defense enough though, instead settling for too many ineffective running plays. The net result was just 16 points and that wasn’t enough to get it done. Oh, and the late timeout by the Colts was horrible. Manning and I were on the same page there.

The Chiefs game… oh, the Chiefs. Way to bugger up the offensive game plan that was working in the first half and completely scrapping it for the second half, putting the game in Matt Cassel’s hands. That played right into the Ravens hands, and the rout was on. Disappointing for the Chiefs defense that was up to the task holding the Ravens offense in check, but Baltimore got great field position as a result of the turnovers and that was way too much to put on the defense. Wishful thinking for me hoping the Chiefs could pull it out and keep my late-November Super Bowl bet alive for another week.

In the final game last weekend, Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles, the Eagles were my pick in a high scoring affair. Three major things happened turning this game in the Packers favour:

1. DeSean Jackson was injured and then less than 100% the rest of the way when he came back in.
2. Packers find a running game all of a sudden with James Starks, who was inactive the prior two games.
3. David Akers missed two field goals.

The Eagles lost by 5. If Akers hits just one of this two misses, then the Eagles are lining up for a game winning FG at the end instead of Vick forcing one into the end zone trying for a TD. No one could have predicted the normally reliable veteran Akers would cost the Eagles the win, but to me that was the biggest reason why the Pack move on to face the Atlanta Falcons this week.

And speaking of this week, let’s put the past in the past and move on to some picks for this week’s games. Similar to last week, I was a guest on Tony Ricciardi’s podcast with Tony and Chris Prospero. We made our picks plus some prop bets each of us brought to the table. You can check the podcast, here. I’ll rehash my picks with a quick summary below.

 
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Saturday January 15 at 4:30pm Eastern
Line: Steelers -3 -125 Over/Under: 37 (lines from Intertops.com)

I’m really on the fence about this one, the toughest game to call this weekend in my opinion. These teams play so close to each other it really could come down to the final possession, whether a big offensive play or a major stop by one of these top notch defenses, or one pivotal play during the game as we’ve seen time and again in this ongoing battle royale.

I’m going with the Steelers to win this drag it out fight mainly because I like their skill players on offense better – Ben Roethlisberger over Joe Flacco and Mike Wallace the best WR from both sides. The Ravens may have a better running back in Ray Rice versus Rashard Mendenhall, but their offensive line hasn’t played as well as expected both rushing and protecting Flacco. They got away with it against the Chiefs, but they may not against the Steelers.

The extra week’s rest helps the Steelers a little too. The Ravens have a special teams advantage. More than likely, Roethlisberger does something remarkable to pull out the win.

Pick: Steelers . . . Bet: pass

 
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons
Saturday January 15 at 8:00pm Eastern
Line: Falcons -2.5 Over/Under: 43.5

Another tough one here. I haven’t been in the Falcons corner all season, and even though I give them due credit for having a very steady, excellently efficient season, I’m picking the Packers to win this one outright. These teams played each other back in Week 12, a 20-17 win by the Falcons thanks to a 40 yard kickoff return plus 15 yard Packers penalty on the return which set the Falcons up nicely for a short drive and winning FG all with under a minute to go.

If I think of what has changed since that game, the Packers defense continued to improve, and more importantly, as of last week against the Eagles they found a running game. Even with all of the injuries during the season this team appears to be peaking at the right time. This won’t be easy, because the Falcons are a really tough out on their home turf, and offer similar balance passing and rushing offensively. This one likely comes down to which defense cracks first, and I think that will be the Falcons. Packers win.

Pick: Packers . . . Bet: Packers +2.5

 
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
Sunday January 16 at 1:00pm Eastern
Line: Bears -10 Over/Under: 41

Are the Seahawks just happy to be here? They are saying all the right things to dissuade that notion, but frankly, this is a team whose fan base questioned whether beating the Rams to win the division was actually worse than finishing 7-9 out of the playoffs with a higher first round draft pick. At this point the Seahawks could get blown out and this season would be considered a success thanks to their win over the New Orleans Saints.

And what a win it was, but really, the Seahawks will not be able to take advantage of the Bears defense like they did the Saints unless they manage to sneak Roman Harper on the field in a Bears uniform. We should be looking at a sub-20 point performance by the ‘Hawks.

The big question (concern) on the Bears side is how will the offense play. Will they go with what worked the latter part of the season, a nicely balanced running game and passing game, or a pass-happy, low protection scheme for Jay Cutler? This is Mike Martz we’re talking about, which is why there is concern he will zig his philosophy when we expect a zag that works, but I’m going to assume they’ve planned appropriately in the two weeks they’ve had to prep for this game.

Pick: Bears . . . Bet: Bears -10

 
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Sunday January 16 at 4:30pm Eastern
Line: Patriots -8.5 Over/Under: 44

The last time the Jets faced the Patriots in Foxboro, the Pats outright pasted the Jets 45-3. One can certainly hope just from an entertainment perspective, this game is nothing close to that last one. Can the Jets compete? This team has the talent to at least make a game of it, and let’s not go annointing the 2010 Patriots the GOAT (greatest of all time) just yet, even though they’ve won their last eight games by a combined score differential of 174. However, the Patriots should win this one by more than a touchdown.

Mark Sanchez was wild with his throws last week, and that is not uncommon for him. The running game looked better than it has the last half of the season but against a pretty average defense. The Jets will need their running game to really win the day for them by keeping the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands. And even then it may not be enough. Brady has the killer instinct I was complaining at the top that Peyton Manning is missing right now, plus Brady is playing lights out this season.

The Jets defense doesn’t match up as well against the Patriots as it did against the Colts. Darrelle Revis blanketing Reggie Wayne has a bigger impact than Revis on, say, Wes Welker. Antonio Cromartie, in theory, matches well against Pierre Garcon, but doesn’t have a particularly good match for him facing the Pats receivers. Brady will use all his options – Welker, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Woodhead, Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Tate – and the Jets won’t be able to generate enough pass rush to prevent Brady from picking them apart. Hoping for a good game here and would love to see the Pats get knocked off, but if I was betting on this game it would have to be for the Pats.

Pick: Patriots . . . Bet: Patriots -8.5

Now, that said I haven’t done a ton of research for the purposes of handicapping this weekend’s games, due to lack of time (recurring theme that it is for me). However, I compiled a few game notes that I found interesting, and will be watching for to see the impact they have, if any, on the outcomes.

In terms of official picks and a little more commentary, plus some ~ for entertainment purposes only ~ prop bets for Wild-Card Weekend, listen to Tony Ricciardi’s Off The Air podcast with Tony, Chris Prospero and yours truly that we recorded earlier this week. I’ll post the picks here after my game notes.

 
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Saturday January 8 at 4:30pm Eastern
Line: Saints -10 Over/Under: 44.5 (lines from Intertops.com)

• NO beat SEA 34-19 at home in Week 11.
• In the second half of the season, Seattle’s big losses at home were all to primarily rushing teams.
  • Week 15 L 34-18 vs. ATL, 37 carries for 96 yards

  • Week 12 L 42-24 vs. KC, 48 carries for 270 yards
  • Week 9 L 41-7 vs. NYG, 47 carries for 197 yards
• SEA did beat Carolina 31-14 at home in Week 13, even though CAR ran it 30 times for 131 yards. The point being NO will not be able to put up these rushing numbers on SEA. Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas were both placed on injured reserve earlier this week.
• Reggie Bush should get more opportunity to run, with the emphasis on the word should. Let’s not forget the Saints are not against completely ignoring the running game if they feel they can get away with it. In Week 1, against the Vikings, the Saints ran just 3 times in the entire first half. I do believe Bush is capable of running between the tackles with some success when called on for a game.
• Drew Brees has thrown at least one interception in 12 straight games.
• Seattle had a lot of trouble converting 1st downs on 3rd/4th and short in Week 17. Statistically they are under 34% in the last 5 weeks; Saints 46%.
• Leon Washington looked good on returns in Week 17 against the Rams. The Saints have a disadvantage on returns and kick coverage.

Seattle didn’t impress me against the St. Louis Rams to clinch the division. The Saints are in a tough spot though with a very poor running game, Brees’ turning the ball over more, and playing in Seattle. They should still have enough to win this game. I wouldn’t bet on them to cover the spread as there is too much risk there at double digits. I might pull the trigger and bet on the underdog Seahawks to cover.

Pick: Saints … Bet: Seahawks +10

 
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Saturday January 8 at 8:00pm Eastern
Line: Colts -2.5 Over/Under: 44.5

• IND has some surprisingly good rushing defense stats the past three games against three decent running teams – Tennessee, Oakland and Jacksonville. Prior to that, they allowed 22 for 111 to Chris Johnson, and prior to that in Week 13 they allowed 46 carries for 217 yards.
• Good analysis from a Colts beat writer perspective, here

The Jets are a scary opponent because I feel they could turn it on like last year’s improbable playoff run, as they still have a good running game, quality receivers and two lockdown cornerbacks (one stellar, one very good) taking away Peyton Manning’s top receivers. We could see a lot of Jacob Tamme and Blair White in this game.

At the end of the day though, there is something missing with the Jets which has led to some wild inconsistency in their play the second half of the season. LaDainian Tomlinson slowed down. The loss of Jim Leonard was perhaps bigger than anyone realizes, and they have a very limited pass rush, which will kill them against Manning. Unless the Colts defense falls completely on its face, this one goes to the Colts. At under a field goal spread I’d put some money on the Colts.

Pick: Colts … Bet: Colts -2.5

 
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday January 9 at 1:00pm Eastern
Line: Ravens -3 Over/Under: 41

• Haloti Ngata did not practice Wednesday or Thursday this week, and if he can’t go that is a huge loss for the Ravens.
• Dwayne Bowe and Brian Waters for the Chiefs are both on the injury report with an illness, but are expected to play. They need Bowe to have a good game and big receivers (of which Bowe certainly qualifies) have given the Ravens secondary some trouble this season.
• I bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at 30-to-1 odds back in late November. Also put a little on the Bears at 20-to-1.

Like I said, these are game notes I find interesting, so while my earlier bet on the Chiefs has no impact on the game itself, it is an important factor to me. Admittedly, I am completely biased to the Chiefs in this game, but with that caveat out of the way, I’m hopeful they can work past the recent controversy between OC Charlie Weis and HC Todd Haley.

The Ravens played a tough schedule and lost just four games, three of those against the Patriots, Falcons and Steelers. The Chiefs played a cake schedule to help win their weak division. Pound for pound this one looks like the Ravens game to lose.

If the Chiefs can work their running game and defensively not allow the Ravens to blow them up, which I fear they are certainly susceptible to, the Chiefs could pull out a victory. I won’t be betting any further on this game though.

Pick: Chiefs … Bet: pass

 
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
SundayJanuary 9 at 4:30pm Eastern
Line: Eagles -2.5 Over/Under: 46

Mike Vick factor. The Packers have a lot of things going for them in this game, including a porous Eagles secondary they can take advantage of, and stellar defensive play of late, but I think Vick comes back healthy in this game and impresses like when he did through most of this season. This could easily be the best game of the weekend, and should be the highest scoring.

My feeling watching the Packers is they still make key mistakes here and there which cost them ball games, and the inability to run at all really hurts them putting teams away. Unheralded LeSean McCoy could be a difference maker in this game for the Eagles. I wouldn’t lay money on either team in this game with confidence, but I may bet the over expecting each team to exceed 24 points.

Pick: Eagles … Bet: Over 46

* Seriously, it was 817 until one group requested I remove them completely from the database post-World Cup so they can keep complete anonimity, and I obliged their request.

Football Survivor will have to settle for second biggest this time around, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be the best! Although that World Cup Pool was a heck of a pool though… BUT! American football is back! The season is not far off now so time to put the footy out of our heads and figure out this funny shaped pigskin and every which way it bounces.

The NFL season starts Thursday September 9th, with the reigining Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints hosting the Brett Favre-led (that’s right, he’s back too) Minnesota Vikings. That will be a good one, although the Vikes will be without star WR Sidney Rice. You don’t know who Sidney Rice is? It doesn’t matter. That is the beauty of this pool—its simplicity.

All you have to do is pick one team to win the first week, straight up (no point spread). If your team wins, then you move on to the next week to pick again. If your team loses or ties, then you are out of the pool. The catch of course is that you cannot pick the same team twice all regular season. It takes a little bit of skill to plan ahead, and a little bit of luck to avoid the upsets and stay alive before everyone else drops off.

It took us until Wild-Card Weekend last year until our final two survivors finally got a pick wrong to end the pool. Lets see what it takes this year. The deadline to enter is kickoff on the first Sunday of Week 1 of the NFL season. That is, Sunday September 12th at 1:00pm Eastern.

Our Football Survivor Pool now boasts the same great pool features we just introduced in the World Cup Pool. You can play for free and create your own pool group, inviting your friends, as many as you like and you can all play for free (or for money, but just sort that out amongst yourselves). Or, join the MOP $20 Poolies group, paying your $20 entry fee online, winner take all and I’ll administer this group.

Come join the pool, and good luck! I’m thinking Miami Dolphins over Buffalo Bills for Week 1, although it is a Bills home game. Maybe the Tennessee Titans over Oakland Raiders…

The MOP mailing list was built from people who at some time in the past six years registered a free member account at either www.myofficepool.ca or www.draftbuddy.com. I created a website feature at MOP which allowed all members to specify what topics they were interested in, whether it be our football pools, March Madness Survivor pool, fantasy baseball or what have you.

Working together, the feature allowed me to segment the mailing list and send newsletters to users about topics they wanted to read or be reminded about.

This worked pretty well, but with the great turnout in the recent World Cup Pool, I jumped into a new higher cost service bracket for the mailing list program. Kind of like jumping into a new tax bracket, which everyone tries to avoid like the plague.

While it is a cost of doing business, just looking around most people can sort of tell I’m not making much money on this website/hobby (click an ad people, click an ad please). As a result of this unexpected extra cost, plus the new pool features to allow people to create their own pool groups, which should result in more communications between the group admin and their friends in the group, I got to thinking, “why not just can the email newsletters?” Who likes email anyway?

So, I’ve decided to do away with the large mailing list and in the future will only email the following people:

1. Pool group admins, otherwise known as members who create their own groups to invite their friends to play in their own private pools
2. Members who join the official MOP $20 Poolies group, otherwise known as our low stakes degenerate gamblers like myself

Of course, exisiting and new members still need a valid email address to receive pick confirmations from the pools, but most of you can expect fewer emails from MOP in the future as a result of this change. Less writing for me; less clutter in your inbox. Sounds like a win-win idea… just don’t go forgetting us now, ya hear?

So how did this happen? Well, I assume all of you watched the big game, Super Bowl XLIV, even those of us long out of contention in the pool (cough, Chargers, cough). Underdog or not, the Saints prevailed, and won by a surprising margin of 14 points in the process.

Not that the game was in the bag from the get-go. They were down 10 early before starting to turn things around. The Saints inexpicably kept Peyton Manning at bay, mainly off the field, for about 75 minutes real time from the second quarter over halftime and into the third. The big play was the surprise onside kick to open the second half. That was huge.

Give credit to the Saints defense, they played possum in the first half and didn’t show their stuff – the wrinkles they had planned – until the second. Excellent defensive teams the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets each went after Manning early in their playoff games. He figured it out and then picked them apart.

The Saints by changing things up in the second half instead picked Manning. It was a game changing interception returned for a TD that turned a seven point lead for the Saints into 14. The Colts had another chance to bring it within seven, but couldn’t convert and the Saints ran out the clock.

My expectations were certainly up hoping for an offensive shootout like we’ve never seen before in the Super Bowl, but it didn’t happen. The game was a bit of a downer on the excitement scale, but I have to remember we’ve been a bit spoiled from the prior two Super Bowl nail biters between the Steelers-Cards, and Giants-Patriots.

Okay, back to the pool. We’ve established haysie in first place. Emma takes second. Man, did that lack of TD by the Colts at the end make a difference. Had the Colts punched that in, fadeleyp would have scored an extra four points, Emma would have had an extra one, and they would have tied for second and third place.

Instead, debbieblows, Cowboys homer and all who earned a lot of points through the first two rounds, holds on to a share of third place with fadeleyp.

mean1001 and rydel were just a point behind to tie for fifth place. Rick, our resident baseball expert, had a surprisingly strong showing landing in seventh.

jsimpson suffered the most from the Colts blowing it. He stayed at 43 points and finished in eighth but would have otherwise likely claimed the top spot.

Congrats to our winners, and thanks everyone for playing! That concludes another pool season on the football front.

Next up, I’ll have to see about another Hockey Survivor Pool, but we are running out of weeks in the NHL season. If you are really pining for some hockey action, the deadline is fast approaching but check out buddy Dwayne Schrader’s Olympic Hockey Box Pool. You can find it on Facebook right here.

That’s right folks, it all comes down to this – the Super Bowl! Not only does it pit two teams known for their killer offenses, but it will decide in a big way the top 3 finishers in our annual NFL Playoffs Pool.

Before we get to what could happen, let’s recap what happened so far. With her curious but appropriate (so I’m told) choice of username, debbieblows continues to hold down top spot in the pool. She couldn’t hit on both picks from Championship Conference week, having already picked the – Homer alert! – Dallas Cowboys to advance through the NFC and win the Super Bowl. So, great job db, but even with a 5 point advantage over the current number two spot, she is going to drop out of the top spot after the final whistle this Sunday.

Now, one would think he’s won enough, having already split the Football Survivor Pool, but haysie is in the thick of things in this pool currently sitting in second place. He’s got 43 points and picked the underdog New Orleans Saints by 3.

Tied with haysie, but not for long, jsimpson picked the Indianapolis Colts by 9.

Down in fourth place we have a three-way tie, but again, only one will be moving up in the world. mroliversson hit all four back on Wild-Card Weekend, and in fact every game except those stupid San Diego Chargers! He had them all the way to win the big game, so he’s stuck at 41 points.

Sitting along side mroliversson but each liking their chances, good buddy Emma picked the Saints by 2 and msweezy has the Colts by 3.

Trailing this bunch, we have a lot of other Saints backers, and Colts backers. Lets see if I can figure out how this is going to play out. Note it is 10 points for picking the Super Bowl winner, and 0, 1, 3 or 5 points for margin of victory.

If the Colts Win

Before we get into bonus points for the margin of victory, jsimpson jumps to 53, msweezy to 51 and mmhast to 50.

If the Colts win big, jsimpson looks safe for at minimum a first place tie, but watch out for Cacciatorini, who would have 49 points plus potential bonus for picking the Colts to win by 13. msweezy and mmhast both picked the Colts by 3, so they are hoping for a close one.

uhh0hh and recent 2nd Half Survivor Pool winner, cneilson, also picked the Colts by 3 while markymark2281 picked the Colts by 4. I’m not double checking my math here, but it doesn’t look like any of these guys can catch the top dogs.

If the Saints Win

Totally different ball game here. Before margin of victory, haysie has 53, Emma has 51 and fadeleyp and rydel each have 47.

fadeleyp picked the Saints by 7, while rydel says they win by 3. Margin of victory could break that tie. Don’t forget debbieblows already has 48, so a zero margin of victory for each of them would still leave her in third place.

I don’t think mean1001 or Rick, each a little further down and picks on the Saints by 7, can quite catch up. Even with a perfect 7 point spread they couldn’t overtake fadeleyp, plus haysie and Emma will get some bonus points. I think fadeleyp could catch Emma by a point with a 7 spread.

Man, my head hurts. Can we just get to the game? Who won the Pro Bowl by the way? I missed it for a trip to IKEA, so you can guess how much importance I put on the Pro Bowl.

Looking for some odd sidebets to include in your Super Bowl degenerate gambling habit? Check out Tony Ricciardi’s Off the Air podcast with guests Chris Prospero and myself talking about the big game. We all picked the Colts to win, so that is a good sign for you “Who Dat” supporters.

Finally some less interesting but important news in case you missed the last blog post or the note on the home page. If you are trying to login to the website your password is likely not working. Check here for details and how to solve it.

Go Colts! I promised John I would back the Colts after they knocked off the stupid Jets who beat my stupid Chargers. It may not be much of a reason to support them, but its a reason. Enjoy the game!

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (stats)

These two teams met in Week 16 of the regular season as the Jets ended the undefeated run of the Colts. Peyton Manning and the Colts regulars only played half of that game but it was very tight when they made their exit.

Mark Sanchez and the Jets still led a few scoring drives and won the game. Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene have been awesome as they have carried the Jets in the postseason offensively. Mark Sanchez is not playing like a rookie and seems to have grabbed hold of the reins for rookie coach Rex Ryan. Revis has shut down both Chad Ochocinco and Vincent Jackson so far this postseason as well as a very long list of players in the regular season and very well may be the best defensive player not named Charles Woodson. He has a tough task this week as Reggie Wayne is one of the best. The Jets head to Miami after a low scoring defensive win.

Prediction: 21 – 20 Jets

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (stats)

Just as everyone predicted early in the season, the Vikings and Saints will meet for a trip to the big one. Brett Favre faces off against Drew Brees. The Vikings are coming off a monster performance in which they completely dominated the Cowboys with great defense and explosive offense. Sidney Rice has emerged as one of the top receivers in the league.

Brees has found an explosive big play guy of his own in Reggie Bush, who had a monster game last week and will be a force as a pass catching back in this matchup. Brees, Bush, Favre, Rice and Adrian Peterson should all provide plenty of offense in this game but it will be the defense that decides it. Jared Allen and the Williams pair, Pat and Kevin, will be just enough to get the Vikes into the big game. Brett Favre will make an attempt to end his career with a second ring.

Prediction: 31 – 21 Vikings

Last week we announced a winner – I mean winners – in the original survivor pool. Technically speaking, we were down to just two still standing and they agreed to split $1,400 of the $1,634 payout, and play for the rest.

Well, that didn’t last long. haysie and knarf67 went into the first week of the playoffs with $234 on the line and both picked the New England Patriots… and promptly finished off that pool with their joint elimination. Each get a trophy and half the cash. Congrats guys, on the 17-0 run in the regular season!

Over in the second half survivor pool, we had five make it through the regular season and advance to the playoffs. After a wildy unexpected Wild-Card Weekend, we lost darosa7 and wizardz99sk who each picked the Pats.

Now it is just cneilson, Gerri Attrics and H(o)(o)ter, who all picked the Dallas Cowboys, still alive and competing for the $627 at the end of the rainbow. And, they can’t pick the Cowboys this week or the rest of the playoffs. I love it when we get to playoff survivor, because you really need to think ahead with these picks.

NFL Playoffs Pool

Is it just me or is this the busiest time in MyOfficePool.ca history? Last weekend we also kicked off the annual NFL Playoffs Pool, with an excellent turnout of 52 entries. Thanks to everyone who referred the pool to friends and family to up our numbers.

In terms of results, we had some impressive performances! … from a few people anyway. Only three, yep, just three, got a perfect four-for-four on their picks. It was a tough week with the Pats and Cincinnati Bengals getting upset, plus most people picked the Green Bay Packers who I think went from dog to fav and back to dog at one point on the Vegas line. That was one crazy game that trumped all the rest by a country mile in terms of entertainment.

Anyway, chrispyne takes the early lead with 18 points by earning 5 bonus points for predicting the Arizona Cardinals to win by exactly 6. Defensive TD in overtime, that is just how you expected that one to play out, right Chris?

debbieblows and mroliversson hold down second place with 16 points and it looks like we have seven people who got three out of four games correct to closely trail our top three players. For as lopsided as a couple of those playoff games were, it seems like most everyone in the top 10 got some bonus points working for them.

And then after that, there are a whole bunch of us who hit 50% of the picks, or 25% (ugh, including yours truly) or 0%. It was apparently slightly easier to hit zero-for-four instead of four-for-four, as we have six entries with that infamous distinction.

In terms of predicted Super Bowl winners, here is how all of our pool entries stack up:

Notably absent, the Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets are still alive in the post-season. The rest of the picks are pretty spread out, with a near even split between two AFC teams to win the big game. Needless to say, this pool is still pretty wide open. After this weekend will be a lot more telling who is in the running for the money.

Enjoy the games this week!