Newsflash! Newsflash! DiMuzio (a.k.a. “The King”) is out of the pool! Last week’s exit of DiMuzio in our original survivor pool, thanks to the big upset win by the Broncos over the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!, brought an end to a streak of 24 consecutive weeks picking an NFL winner. DiMuzio won last year’s pool in 12 weeks, and then rattled off another 12 straight weeks this year before finally getting the boot in Week 13. He has some none too kind words for Brett Favre, let me tell you. Anyway, great streak DiMuzio. One that will be very tough to beat. Twenty-five has a nicer ring to it than 24, but 25 was not meant to be.
We also lost nikolai_b in our original survivor pool leaving only 4 still standing and competing for the $1,600 payout. Most people in the 2nd half pool went with one of the lopsided Thanksgiving Day matchups, and when all was said and done, we didn’t lose a soul in that pool in Week 13.
H(o)(o)ter (love that username) already kicked off the picks this week taking San Diego over Oakland, and breezed to victory as the Raiders looked absolutely horrible. We’ve had to bear witness to some pretty bad showcase NFL games the past couple weeks, but I think that one took us to a whole new level of disgrace.
1. New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks – The Patriots got smoked by the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, losing 33-10, but honestly there is no shame in that. The Steelers are as good as the Raiders are bad… okay, maybe not that extreme, but you get the point. While the Patriots have been alternating wins and losses the past 6 weeks, they are generally playing good football with Matt Cassel coming around and the defense doing okay. The losses in recent weeks were to good teams, including the Jets and Colts each by a field goal.
The Seahawks are down right bad. Does anyone remember a season with more down right bad teams than this one? Losers of 5 straight and 8 of their last 9, Seattle looks overmatched here. This may not be a walk in the park for the Pats. The Seahawks did lose by only 6 and 3 points in their prior 2 home games to the Cardinals and Redskins, each decent teams roughly equivalent to New England. The Pats have to travel all the way across the country. However, after being humiliated the week before and in a tight, tight division race, they can’t afford to drop this one. I look for a big rebound game for the Pats and a win.
2. Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals - Did I say Indy last week at Cleveland? Sure did, and wow, that was a close one. The Colts have played a lot of close ones lately, but the important thing is, they keep on winning. Five wins in a row by, going backwards, 4, 3, 6, 4 and 3 points. The Cleveland game should never have been so close, but the Colts offense had a terrible day while the Browns’ 3-4 defense rose to the occasion. Always remember to account for a 3-4 defense that gives fits to even good offenses like the Colts. It took a fumble recovery and TD in the 4th quarter by the Colts’ DE Robert Mathis to take the lead and win the game.
Given what happened last week, you’d think I would be a little gun shy picking the Colts again this week. Not so. Enter the Cincinnati Bengals (with their 4-3 defense), and this time its a home game for the Colts instead of on the road. The Bengals defense should be just what the doctor ordered to cure the Colts offensive woes, much like the Raiders helped the Chargers show they are still capable of scoring 30+ points, at least when facing an inept opponent. Indy dominates this game statistically everywhere except the Bengals D has a slight advantage against the run.
The Bengals have pretty much mailed it in at this point. The Colts know they cannot afford a slip up to earn a wild-card berth, with the division title basically out of reach at this point. The Colts’ offense will be motivated to show they are much better than they were a week ago. The Colts win this one. I’d even say they win this one by 10+, but all we need is a win.
There are some other good picks available this week. I considered Tennessee over Cleveland, but figured most people already used Tennessee last week or earlier. The Browns are trotting out their 3rd starting QB of the season, Ken Dorsey, having lost Derek Anderson last week to a knee injury (who was back in replacing an injured Brady Quinn).
Similar to my expected rebound by the Patriots, the Jets visit San Francisco and need a good rebound game themselves after they were still dreaming of sugarplums and beating the Titans back in Week 12 while the Broncos slapped them around last week. I consider San Fran to be slightly more dangerous than Seattle, which is why I gave New England the nod above the Jets, but really, the Jets should win this one going away.
I would stay away from Minnesota at Detroit. It is still not entirely clear whether both Viking DT Pat and Kevin Williams (no relation) play this week due to a league suspension. If they don’t, then its a huge hit to their defense. It looks like they will play, but with all of the distraction caused as a result of this, it would seem there are better choices out their this week.
I actually prefer Arizona over St. Louis to Minnesota. The Cards can clinch their division, and just how many times have we said that in the past decade? Yep, lots of good choices this week, which from a glass is half empty look, means there is more chance for a big upset (or upsets). Pick wisely, and good luck!