Football Survivor Picks, Week 12

The Steelers polished off the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. While this isn’t very useful now, my number one pick this week was the Steelers, as evidenced by my pick in the original survivor pool for Week 12. Hey, I would have been happy to post that earlier if time allowed. At this point I’m just looking to keep my streak going of posting my survivor opinions every Friday, which is no small task in its own right… ulp, its getting late on Friday now!

So, what we need are 2-3 other picks to survive through Week 12, with the Steelers pick not available to us. I’m on a good streak hitting 3 of 3 picks last week, and 2 of 2 in Week 10. Regardless of a couple high Vegas odds favourites this week, I am not keen on these available picks, but lets see what we can figure out.

1. Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints – On the surface you’re probably thinking, huh? Packers at Saints, Monday night? Hear me out, as I’m liking this matchup, and while I realize its a bit risky, I think it has some merit. Since their Week 8 bye, the Packers are 1-2. However, the losses were close ones at Tennessee against the still undefeated Titans, and at Minnesota. The Vikings game was a poor showing by the offense, but big plays by the defense and special teams kept them in it. Last week, the Packers blew out the Bears at home. All in all, 1-2 but against pretty tough competition.

The Saints on the other hand, they sport the same record as the Packers, but I would argue they earned that against far inferior competition. Wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and 49ers. Admittedly they did beat the Chargers in London, England by 5 in a shootout, but I’m past the point thinking the Chargers are anything special this year. Pound for pound, it would seem to me the Packers have been more successful this season against stiffer competition than the Saints.

Looking at the matchups, both offenses are pretty similar statistically. The Packers are getting Ryan Grant on track finally with yards per rush of 4.3, 4.7 and 5.8 the past 3 weeks. Again, think about the competition, each tough running defenses.The Saints do have an advantage in the passing game with Drew Brees targetting Dan Marino’s single season passing record. Ah, but the strength of the Packers defense is their pass D, allowing an adjusted average of just 153 passing yards per game in recent weeks. Overall defense is giving up 10 fewer points per game than the Saints over the same period, and creating more turnovers. Throw in better special teams, and this one points to the Pack on the stats sheet.

There are some key injuries to consider for this one. Reggie Bush may be back for the Saints but looks to be a gametime decision. Charles Woodson was limited in practice for the Packers, and he is a significant contributor. This will be the Saints first true home game since October 12th, which could give them a lift early, but the Packers should be highly motivated themselves, currently sitting in a 3-way tie for their division lead, a division which should only produce 1 playoff team. I’m going to back the better team, the Packers, in this one.

2. ___ ?

Now, as much as I’d like to fill in a 2nd and even 3rd pick, I’m just not seeing any I’m in love with, or even like a little bit. The top remaining favourites this week are Dallas vs. San Francisco and Denver vs. Oakland. Both Dallas and Denver concern me. Dallas because they still don’t seem to be “back” from their mid-season swoon. The 49ers are still a wild-card under the new Mike Singletary regime. As I told a friend of mine, you can bet Singletary is kicking their ass (the players), which can work wonders in the short term. The 19 point win last week somewhat supports that, but people aren’t putting much stock in that win since it was against the Rams. The same Rams team the Cowboys lost to 5 weeks ago. Tony Romo is back but continues to wear the tape/splint contraption on his throwing hand. Like I said, not much confidence in the ‘Boys here.

Denver at Oakland… we know Oakland is not very good, that’s a given, and I’ve certainly picked on them in recent weeks. But I think it is also fair to say that Denver, is not very good either. Better than Oakland? Sure. Much better? I’m not so sure. The defense played above expectations last week, winning at Atlanta, but they are still incredibly banged up. Plus Denver’s strength on offense is the passing game, which is Oakland’s defensive strength. In a division game between heated rivals, maybe the Raiders can pull the upset. I’m not saying they will, but I don’t want to be holding the bag with Denver.

Well, if I am going to get this published Friday I’d better sign off now. Packers or bust this week. Oh wait, I already picked the Steelers. Whew!