Bye weeks are over for 2008, so now there are a couple more games to choose from for our survivor picks. Of course, 11 weeks in, and assuming the “can’t use the same team twice” rule that applies in most survivor pools, we are down 10 teams to select from. Looking at my own entries in the 2 of 3 survivor pools I’m still alive in, choices are getting slim. The good choices anyway.
Its not often I look ahead on the schedule and let that sway my opinion on the current week, but last week I did just that, and gave a preview on the picks for Week 11. The Week 10 picks were the Dolphins and Panthers, both wins. While their collective performances were not as convincing as we would like (not many were last week), a win is a win is a win. Take it and move on. Towards the end of last week’s column, I mentioned both teams are very likely to go 2-0 last week and sure enough, the ‘Phins and Panthers give us our top picks for this week.
1. Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions – I liked the Panthers last week over the Raiders, but that game was in Oakland. I prefer to back a team like the Panthers, who get a little skittish on the road, at home. The NFC South has really tightened up. The Panthers are currently in 1st place, but only a game up on the Falcons and Bucs. The Lions are of course still working towards a winless season, pulling Daunte Culpepper out of semi-retirement … and starting him! … in his first week with the team. That is how crazy things are in Motown. A look at the early injury report shows the Panthers are pretty healthy with only 2 players missing or limited in practice. The Lions have, 16. Yikes. While its possible the Panthers could look past the Lions to their match against the Falcons in Atlanta the following week, the Lions are so inferior right now, the Panthers should cruise through this one in front of their home fans. The Panthers win this cat fight.
2. Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders – It took a knocked down 2-point conversion try for the Dolphins to hold onto their lead last week, ultimately winning by just 2 over the Seahawks. Still, the Dolphins are well coached, playing at home, healthy and are in the playoff race, currently working on a 3 game winning streak. The Raiders are travelling across the country, not that healthy, and have dropped each of their last 3 games by double digits, failing to score more than 10 points in any of them. The Raiders are getting excellent pass defense from their star CB Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Dolphins lean heavily on the run and don’t have a single, main go-to receiver. The Dolphins have a similar concern as the Panthers of potentially looking past their current week opponent, as they host the Patriots next week, but winning is still a relatively new concept to this team. The Dolphins will have their heads in the game and get the win over the lowly Raiders.
3. Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans – Have you still got the Colts available? There is a good chance you do if you’re still alive in your survivor pool, because the first two months of their season was anything but smooth sailing. Now we’re into November, look who is righting their ship all of a sudden. While not dominating victories, winning back-to-back games over the Patriots and Steelers (in Pittsburgh) is no easy task. The run defense is not as bad as people perceive. Its improved to allowing under 100 yards per game at less than 3.5 per carry through the past 5 weeks, an improvement reminiscent of their Super Bowl year. The pass defense continues to be solid, and the passing game is always a threat. Running the ball continues to be a problem.
Over on the Texans, they no doubt have some talent on both sides of the ball, and QB Sage Rosenfels is not a big drop-off from starter Matt Schaub, but who have they beaten, really? The Dolphins (by 1 point), Lions and Bengals, all at home. The Texans should have beaten the Colts earlier this year before Rosenfels literally tossed the game away with minutes to go, but that was a huge emotional game for the Texans, their first home game four weeks into the season, and the Colts were clearly struggling and ripe for the picking. And the Texans still managed to lose.
This time the Colts are on the upswing, thinking playoffs, while the Texans are coming off back-to-back losses. The Texans only have 1 win in their history playing the Colts, and this isn’t the game they are going to make it to number 2. Take the Colts.