I need a good regular name for this column. Something catchy. Something with a Survivor theme. Something better than, Football Survivor Picks, Week X. Staying Alive ? The Tribe Has Spoken ? Punt, Pass and Hold Your Breath ? Maybe Football Survivor Picks, Week X isn’t so bad afterall.
Last week was all about breaking the rules, and the picks resulted in 2 wins and 1 “what the hell are the Jaguars doing?”, which I’ve already discussed ad naseum. Thursday night games start this week, not that I would suggest using the Denver-Cleveland tilt as a survivor pick, but here are 2 I would consider for Week 10:
1. Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks – Its been a swan song to forget for head coach Mike Holmgren. Seattle is a mess right now. Other than a 21 point win over the 49ers in Mike Singletary’s head coaching debut, the Seahawks have lost by 10 or more every game since their bye back in Week 4. They have an adjusted average of only 11.3 points per game in that span, and are giving up 24.3. They are still without QB Matt Hasselbeck, and are also missing their best defensive player, DE Patrick Kerney.
Miami has been somewhat the opposite. While not dominating teams, they posted solid 9 point wins over the Broncos and Bills since losing by 2 TDs at home to the Ravens and dropping a 1 point decision in Houston. There is a statistical advantage to Miami on both offense and defense, except rushing offense where Seattle is only slightly (and surprisingly) better in recent week. This is offset by a worse run D on Seattle.
Seattle is travelling about as far as they can travel in the continental U.S. for a football game, as this game is being played in Miami, 1:00 start. Miami is playing better football right now, they are healthier, playing at home, with more at stake in the competitive AFC East. The Dolphins look poised for a solid win this week.
2. Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders – This one actually stuck out at me initially before the Miami pick, but in one of my survivor pools I’m still alive in I switched the pick from Carolina to Miami. Not only did I become increasingly confident in Miami looking at their stats matched up to Seattle, but Carolina is on the road here, and plays at home to the Detroit Lions next week. Mind you, Miami plays at home to Oakland next week. No matter how you slice it, if you have both teams available, Miami and Carolina look like a good bet to each go 2-0 through Weeks 10 and 11.
As for this game in particular, how could one not bet against the Raiders after that disaster of an offensive performance last week? They mustered a grand total of 3 first downs, 31 passing yards and had a time of possession under 15 minutes. Ouch. The defense isn’t a whole lot better. Although it is theoretically possible releasing CB DeAngelo Hall, one of the biggest “whoops” free agent signings in NFL history, will have an addition by subtraction impact, more than likely the defense folds like a lawn chair as they just go through the motions wondering how they ever got caught up in this circus of an organization.
For the Panthers, they are talented on both sides of the ball. They’ve scored 24 or more in 4 of their last 5 games, and given up less than 10 points against in 3 of those games. The Panthers running game might be a little off, as Jonathan Stewart could sit with an injury, but DeAngelo Williams should be up to the task on his own. The concerns here are that the Panthers need to travel across the country, and could easily take the Raiders for granted coming off their bye. Only a half game up on Tampa Bay, and a game on Atlanta in the NFC South, one would hope the Panthers will not let that happen. Back the Panthers.
Lets leave it at 2 picks this week instead of 3. Hopefully you have one of those teams available. Another consideration is the Chargers over the Chiefs, with the Chargers coming off their bye, but they certainly have not been a team worthy of a lot of confidence this year.
I actually have more confidence picking the Patriots over the Bills, but the Bills are losing games mainly because of self-imposed mistakes. They can still be dangerous if they clean up their act, not to mention the last thing I want to see is another Bills loss in this battle for first place in the division.
Of course the Jaguars are facing the 0-8 Lions. Tempting, tempting… no, don’t do it!