Argh! These Thursday games are killing me! I knew I should have just posted quickly on Wednesday to take Tennessee this week, as my top pick and evidenced again by me using them in our original survivor pool. And then Dallas was a close second pick. By writing today I can’t very well say, “pick those teams” now.

My excuse? I’m in Mexico as I type this. The wife and I are celebrating an overdue anniversary. The flight was on Thursday so Wednesday was mad packing, while Thursday I was in the air on a cheap charter unable to watch most all of the football. Based on the scores, it doesn’t look like I missed much. Landslide win by the Titans, landslide win by the Cowboys, and big win by the Eagles over the Cards. Not that much of a surprise there. The Cards are terrible on the road. The Eagles were embarassed the week before. Big rebound performance for them, especially Donovan McNabb, which is good to see, even though I did literally laugh out loud at this post-game recap of what happened to McNabb last week.

Okay, so with 3 games already off the board lets see what’s left for this week in terms of survivor picks.

1. Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals are at home in this one, and then pretty much everything else points in favour of the Ravens. Well, not quite, but its close. The Ravens have won 5 of their last 6, all by double digits. The loss was by double digits too, to the Giants. The Bengals were showing mild improvement with a win over the Jaguars (those untrustworthy Jaguars) and a tie to the Eagles before getting skunked in Pittsburgh last week, 27-10. WR Chad Johnson did not play last week due to a team suspension, although his presence would have made little difference in the outcome.

Looking at the history between these teams, the Bengals have won head-to-head in Cincinnati each of the past 3 years. This season’s version of each team however, shows a better offense for the Ravens, and much better defense for the Ravens, and the Ravens are still locked in a tough playoff hunt. They are a game back of the Steelers for the division, and face a tough schedule to close out their season. They cannot afford to drop this one to the 1-9-1 Bengals. And they won’t. Take the Ravens.

2. Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns – In recent weeks statistically, these teams are actually pretty close to one another on offense and defense. In fact our adjusted average points for and against calculations show the Browns scoring slightly better, and giving up slightly fewer points than the Colts. Ah, but a look inside the numbers shows the Colts have done that against some tough competition – Titans, Pats, Steelers, Texans and Chargers the past 5 games, including a 4 game winning streak since the Titans game. The Browns – Jags, Ravens, Broncos, Bills, Texans, a 2-3 record in these games with all 3 losses at home.

The Browns are switching back to QB Derek Anderson this week due to necessity. Brady Quinn is out for the year with ligament damage in his finger, an injury he tried to play through last week. That can be a little dangerous since we don’t know if the time off has allowed Anderson to get back to his 2007 form, or if last year truly was an aberration. I think the latter. The Colts are a team I don’t usually expect much let down from. While they haven’t won big in recent weeks, they are on an upswing after playing below typical Colt standards early in the year. I would expect the Colts running game to perform well this week, and they will beat the Browns.

Upon further inspection, there are some decent choices this week. Beyond the Ravens and Colts, many will likely grab the New York Jets at home over the Broncos. The Jets are the hottest team in the NFL right now having just knocked off the Titans, and the Broncos are coming off a 21 point loss at home to the Raiders. Hard to argue with picking the Jets, other than to note what the Eagles did last night after a bad loss last weekend. If the Jets have their heads in the game, they should be more than capable of disposing of the Broncos, but could still be on their “high” from the Titans game.

I was also somewhat close to recommending the Bills at home over the 49ers, but one big win over the Chiefs does not give me a ton of confidence in the Bills. They should win (they’d better win this one), but I can’t give it a strong recommendation. About the only certainty here is FOX will assign one of their lowest ranked commentator teams to help broadcast this game. And I decided to program record this one before I left for Mexico. I’m a glutton for punishment. Más cerveza. Adiós!

Simple, start writing about football and give football opinions. A football is, uh, football shaped because it does some crazy things, or maybe the other way around. Either or, predicting the NFL with a great degree of accuracy is difficult at the best of times, and down right humbling at the worst of times. Even if you are doing well and get on a “streak”, it can quickly turn around to bite in the behind.

Now, if you really want to go above and beyond on the “not a genius” thing, how about predicting, in a survivor pool no less, to take the Green Bay Packers away from home, in a dome stadium, against a QB on pace to break Dan Marino’s passing yards record, oh, and not to mention the home team hasn’t played at home in over a month. While I did highlight each of these as risks in picking the Packers, I went ahead and picked them anyway.

So what the heck was with Green Bay in that game (a.k.a. debacle)? The incredible pass defense got torched the entire night. Pretty much everything the Saints wanted to do on offense, they did. The Pack did keep it close through the first half, but completely fell apart in the 3rd quarter. Does Aaron Rodgers’ arm look tired? He badly underthrew a wide open Greg Jennings in the first half, and then again on the first INT which helped open the flood gates for the Saints.

My apologies for the Packers pick last week. On a positive note, I wonder if I did sway a few people off of the Broncos, who were humiliated in front of their home fans to the Raiders? We can’t win ‘em all, especially with regards to football, but thankfully, that pretty much means we can’t lose ‘em all either.

The Steelers polished off the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. While this isn’t very useful now, my number one pick this week was the Steelers, as evidenced by my pick in the original survivor pool for Week 12. Hey, I would have been happy to post that earlier if time allowed. At this point I’m just looking to keep my streak going of posting my survivor opinions every Friday, which is no small task in its own right… ulp, its getting late on Friday now!

So, what we need are 2-3 other picks to survive through Week 12, with the Steelers pick not available to us. I’m on a good streak hitting 3 of 3 picks last week, and 2 of 2 in Week 10. Regardless of a couple high Vegas odds favourites this week, I am not keen on these available picks, but lets see what we can figure out.

1. Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints – On the surface you’re probably thinking, huh? Packers at Saints, Monday night? Hear me out, as I’m liking this matchup, and while I realize its a bit risky, I think it has some merit. Since their Week 8 bye, the Packers are 1-2. However, the losses were close ones at Tennessee against the still undefeated Titans, and at Minnesota. The Vikings game was a poor showing by the offense, but big plays by the defense and special teams kept them in it. Last week, the Packers blew out the Bears at home. All in all, 1-2 but against pretty tough competition.

The Saints on the other hand, they sport the same record as the Packers, but I would argue they earned that against far inferior competition. Wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and 49ers. Admittedly they did beat the Chargers in London, England by 5 in a shootout, but I’m past the point thinking the Chargers are anything special this year. Pound for pound, it would seem to me the Packers have been more successful this season against stiffer competition than the Saints.

Looking at the matchups, both offenses are pretty similar statistically. The Packers are getting Ryan Grant on track finally with yards per rush of 4.3, 4.7 and 5.8 the past 3 weeks. Again, think about the competition, each tough running defenses.The Saints do have an advantage in the passing game with Drew Brees targetting Dan Marino’s single season passing record. Ah, but the strength of the Packers defense is their pass D, allowing an adjusted average of just 153 passing yards per game in recent weeks. Overall defense is giving up 10 fewer points per game than the Saints over the same period, and creating more turnovers. Throw in better special teams, and this one points to the Pack on the stats sheet.

There are some key injuries to consider for this one. Reggie Bush may be back for the Saints but looks to be a gametime decision. Charles Woodson was limited in practice for the Packers, and he is a significant contributor. This will be the Saints first true home game since October 12th, which could give them a lift early, but the Packers should be highly motivated themselves, currently sitting in a 3-way tie for their division lead, a division which should only produce 1 playoff team. I’m going to back the better team, the Packers, in this one.

2. ___ ?

Now, as much as I’d like to fill in a 2nd and even 3rd pick, I’m just not seeing any I’m in love with, or even like a little bit. The top remaining favourites this week are Dallas vs. San Francisco and Denver vs. Oakland. Both Dallas and Denver concern me. Dallas because they still don’t seem to be “back” from their mid-season swoon. The 49ers are still a wild-card under the new Mike Singletary regime. As I told a friend of mine, you can bet Singletary is kicking their ass (the players), which can work wonders in the short term. The 19 point win last week somewhat supports that, but people aren’t putting much stock in that win since it was against the Rams. The same Rams team the Cowboys lost to 5 weeks ago. Tony Romo is back but continues to wear the tape/splint contraption on his throwing hand. Like I said, not much confidence in the ‘Boys here.

Denver at Oakland… we know Oakland is not very good, that’s a given, and I’ve certainly picked on them in recent weeks. But I think it is also fair to say that Denver, is not very good either. Better than Oakland? Sure. Much better? I’m not so sure. The defense played above expectations last week, winning at Atlanta, but they are still incredibly banged up. Plus Denver’s strength on offense is the passing game, which is Oakland’s defensive strength. In a division game between heated rivals, maybe the Raiders can pull the upset. I’m not saying they will, but I don’t want to be holding the bag with Denver.

Well, if I am going to get this published Friday I’d better sign off now. Packers or bust this week. Oh wait, I already picked the Steelers. Whew!

Thankfully, the rules in each of our survivor pools specifically stated that the team you pick needs to WIN their game. A loss or a tie results in getting eliminated from the pool. Not that I expected a tie. There hasn’t (pardon me, had not) been a tie since 2002, Falcons at Steelers, until this past week when the Eagles woefully underperformed and tied the Bengals, 13-13. Two entries had the Eagles in our original full season pool, and 4 in our 2nd half pool. Like I said, thankfully I included that in the pool rules, or we could have had a bit of a situation on our hands.

It was a tough week for one of our top pool players, Cacciatorini, who not only lost with Philly in both the original and 2nd half pools, but also the Falcons in the 2nd half pool with another entry. The Falcons seemed like a fairly safe bet going in, as the Falcons had been playing great, were only a game behind in the tough NFC South division, and were at home playing against a Broncos team that has been very average to below average lately, losing 3 of their prior 4 games. Furthermore, the Broncos already terrible defense was losing bodies left, right and center.

Ah, but sometimes when rookies and unheralded backups become de facto starters due to a wave of injuries, those players play with even a little more fire than the guys they replaced. It could be due to fresh legs. It could be due to, “hey, I may not get another shot at this.” Whatever it was, maybe the extra days since their prior Thursday night tussle with the Browns, and trying to stay a leg up in their own division race, the Broncos played well enough to upset the Falcons.

Its been tough knocking anyone out of our pools through the past few weeks. Maybe this is a little foreshadowing to a sudden mass exodus. Tread carefully…

Bye weeks are over for 2008, so now there are a couple more games to choose from for our survivor picks. Of course, 11 weeks in, and assuming the “can’t use the same team twice” rule that applies in most survivor pools, we are down 10 teams to select from. Looking at my own entries in the 2 of 3 survivor pools I’m still alive in, choices are getting slim. The good choices anyway.

Its not often I look ahead on the schedule and let that sway my opinion on the current week, but last week I did just that, and gave a preview on the picks for Week 11. The Week 10 picks were the Dolphins and Panthers, both wins. While their collective performances were not as convincing as we would like (not many were last week), a win is a win is a win. Take it and move on. Towards the end of last week’s column, I mentioned both teams are very likely to go 2-0 last week and sure enough, the ‘Phins and Panthers give us our top picks for this week.

1. Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions – I liked the Panthers last week over the Raiders, but that game was in Oakland. I prefer to back a team like the Panthers, who get a little skittish on the road, at home. The NFC South has really tightened up. The Panthers are currently in 1st place, but only a game up on the Falcons and Bucs. The Lions are of course still working towards a winless season, pulling Daunte Culpepper out of semi-retirement … and starting him! … in his first week with the team. That is how crazy things are in Motown. A look at the early injury report shows the Panthers are pretty healthy with only 2 players missing or limited in practice. The Lions have, 16. Yikes. While its possible the Panthers could look past the Lions to their match against the Falcons in Atlanta the following week, the Lions are so inferior right now, the Panthers should cruise through this one in front of their home fans. The Panthers win this cat fight.

2. Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders – It took a knocked down 2-point conversion try for the Dolphins to hold onto their lead last week, ultimately winning by just 2 over the Seahawks. Still, the Dolphins are well coached, playing at home, healthy and are in the playoff race, currently working on a 3 game winning streak. The Raiders are travelling across the country, not that healthy, and have dropped each of their last 3 games by double digits, failing to score more than 10 points in any of them. The Raiders are getting excellent pass defense from their star CB Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Dolphins lean heavily on the run and don’t have a single, main go-to receiver. The Dolphins have a similar concern as the Panthers of potentially looking past their current week opponent, as they host the Patriots next week, but winning is still a relatively new concept to this team. The Dolphins will have their heads in the game and get the win over the lowly Raiders.

3. Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans – Have you still got the Colts available? There is a good chance you do if you’re still alive in your survivor pool, because the first two months of their season was anything but smooth sailing. Now we’re into November, look who is righting their ship all of a sudden. While not dominating victories, winning back-to-back games over the Patriots and Steelers (in Pittsburgh) is no easy task. The run defense is not as bad as people perceive. Its improved to allowing under 100 yards per game at less than 3.5 per carry through the past 5 weeks, an improvement reminiscent of their Super Bowl year. The pass defense continues to be solid, and the passing game is always a threat. Running the ball continues to be a problem.

Over on the Texans, they no doubt have some talent on both sides of the ball, and QB Sage Rosenfels is not a big drop-off from starter Matt Schaub, but who have they beaten, really? The Dolphins (by 1 point), Lions and Bengals, all at home. The Texans should have beaten the Colts earlier this year before Rosenfels literally tossed the game away with minutes to go, but that was a huge emotional game for the Texans, their first home game four weeks into the season, and the Colts were clearly struggling and ripe for the picking. And the Texans still managed to lose.

This time the Colts are on the upswing, thinking playoffs, while the Texans are coming off back-to-back losses. The Texans only have 1 win in their history playing the Colts, and this isn’t the game they are going to make it to number 2. Take the Colts.

When our original Football Survivor Pool started, it seemed like we were going to finish it up inside five to six weeks. We lost almost one-third the first week, another one-third the next two weeks, and then another one-fifth in Week 4. All told we were down 53 of 68 entries (78%) in just four weeks of the pool.

Now, we just can’t seem to get rid of anyone. There has just been 1 casualty in the last 4 weeks. Although people are hanging on by the skin of their teeth, and never more apparent than last week, Week 10.

The Chargers look like a safe bet against the Chiefs. Powerhouse offense, playing at home, two weeks to prepare and Chiefs still without a RB anyone has heard of with Larry Johnson still suspended. Tyler Thigpen at QB? Surely that has been a complete fluke the prior two weeks of slinging around the Thigpen… er, I mean, pigskin. In the dying seconds, the Chiefs are down by 7. A bounce pass off two Charger defenders and great catch by Tony Gonzalez for the TD. Go for the win, Herm! He does! The Chargers lost to the Broncos earlier this season the exact same way in the infamous fumble-not a fumble call. Thigpen rolls out, and, and, incomplete. Chiefs lose, Chargers win, and half our original survivor entries breathe a sigh of relief.

Okay, switch to Monday night, 49ers at Cardinals. I realize the then 5-3 Cards were big favourites to the 2-6 49ers, but I didn’t really understand why exactly. Sure, the 49ers got creamed their prior game, after which we learned new head coach Mike Singletary took his pants down at halftime. Think the players were maybe in shock for the second half of that game? I would be. But seriously, Singletary had two weeks to prep that team for the Cards game, coming off a game that embarassed him. I thought the 49ers would be ready for this one, and they were in spades. They lead most of the game. A less than flawless game by 9ers’ QB Shaun Hilll, and a near flawless game by the Cards QB Kurt Warner, brought Arizona back to take the lead with 4:21 on the play clock.

Back come the 49ers, now down by 5. Jason Hill makes a nice catch and spin move, bringing them down to the 2-yard line. No timeouts. Spike it! Why is the spike taking so long? Okay, ball spiked, 2nd-and-goal with about 20 seconds to go. Run! Gore to the left, he gets tagged and down before he can squirm in the end zone. Clock running… Final play. Its got to be an option run-pass, right, right? Run up the middle! Stopped! 49ers lose, Cards win, and so ends one of the wildest survivor pool weeks this season. Bring on Week 11.

I need a good regular name for this column. Something catchy. Something with a Survivor theme. Something better than, Football Survivor Picks, Week X. Staying Alive ? The Tribe Has Spoken ? Punt, Pass and Hold Your Breath ? Maybe Football Survivor Picks, Week X isn’t so bad afterall.

Last week was all about breaking the rules, and the picks resulted in 2 wins and 1 “what the hell are the Jaguars doing?”, which I’ve already discussed ad naseum. Thursday night games start this week, not that I would suggest using the Denver-Cleveland tilt as a survivor pick, but here are 2 I would consider for Week 10:

1. Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks – Its been a swan song to forget for head coach Mike Holmgren. Seattle is a mess right now. Other than a 21 point win over the 49ers in Mike Singletary’s head coaching debut, the Seahawks have lost by 10 or more every game since their bye back in Week 4. They have an adjusted average of only 11.3 points per game in that span, and are giving up 24.3. They are still without QB Matt Hasselbeck, and are also missing their best defensive player, DE Patrick Kerney.

Miami has been somewhat the opposite. While not dominating teams, they posted solid 9 point wins over the Broncos and Bills since losing by 2 TDs at home to the Ravens and dropping a 1 point decision in Houston. There is a statistical advantage to Miami on both offense and defense, except rushing offense where Seattle is only slightly (and surprisingly) better in recent week. This is offset by a worse run D on Seattle.

Seattle is travelling about as far as they can travel in the continental U.S. for a football game, as this game is being played in Miami, 1:00 start. Miami is playing better football right now, they are healthier, playing at home, with more at stake in the competitive AFC East. The Dolphins look poised for a solid win this week.

2. Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders – This one actually stuck out at me initially before the Miami pick, but in one of my survivor pools I’m still alive in I switched the pick from Carolina to Miami. Not only did I become increasingly confident in Miami looking at their stats matched up to Seattle, but Carolina is on the road here, and plays at home to the Detroit Lions next week. Mind you, Miami plays at home to Oakland next week. No matter how you slice it, if you have both teams available, Miami and Carolina look like a good bet to each go 2-0 through Weeks 10 and 11.

As for this game in particular, how could one not bet against the Raiders after that disaster of an offensive performance last week? They mustered a grand total of 3 first downs, 31 passing yards and had a time of possession under 15 minutes. Ouch. The defense isn’t a whole lot better. Although it is theoretically possible releasing CB DeAngelo Hall, one of the biggest “whoops” free agent signings in NFL history, will have an addition by subtraction impact, more than likely the defense folds like a lawn chair as they just go through the motions wondering how they ever got caught up in this circus of an organization.

For the Panthers, they are talented on both sides of the ball. They’ve scored 24 or more in 4 of their last 5 games, and given up less than 10 points against in 3 of those games. The Panthers running game might be a little off, as Jonathan Stewart could sit with an injury, but DeAngelo Williams should be up to the task on his own. The concerns here are that the Panthers need to travel across the country, and could easily take the Raiders for granted coming off their bye. Only a half game up on Tampa Bay, and a game on Atlanta in the NFC South, one would hope the Panthers will not let that happen. Back the Panthers.

Lets leave it at 2 picks this week instead of 3. Hopefully you have one of those teams available. Another consideration is the Chargers over the Chiefs, with the Chargers coming off their bye, but they certainly have not been a team worthy of a lot of confidence this year.

I actually have more confidence picking the Patriots over the Bills, but the Bills are losing games mainly because of self-imposed mistakes. They can still be dangerous if they clean up their act, not to mention the last thing I want to see is another Bills loss in this battle for first place in the division.

Of course the Jaguars are facing the 0-8 Lions. Tempting, tempting… no, don’t do it!

Never, ever, ever trust the Jacksonville Jaguars. As mentioned in my Week 9 survivor picks, that is a rule I’ve tried to abide by for a while now, but every once in a while I get a little twinge that says, “No, it will be all right. They can’t possibly screw up this one.”

Wrong. In case you missed it, the Jags decided to sleepwalk through 3 quarters of their game against the previously winless Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. Down 21-3, they finally woke up and managed a FG, a fumble recovery TD and then a drive capped by a rushing TD, putting them down by 2 points with the convert to tie it, and, and… no good. Lose 21-19. To the Bengals. While I’m thankful I didn’t influence anyone to take the Jags in our original football survivor or the 2nd half survivor, why oh why didn’t any of you talk me off the ledge?

My other picks, the Giants crushed the Cowboys. Did I say teams going in opposite directions? And then some. The Bears needed a come from behind effort, directed by Super Rex, Rex Grossman, after Kyle Orton went down with a bad looking leg injury before halftime.

At least no one in the original survivor needs to worry about backing Grossman the rest of the way, as every single entry was on the Bears this week. Who’s heart sunk when Orton left the game, hmm…? Come on guys, lets mix it up a little for Week 10. Thursday games start this week, Denver at Cleveland.