Football Survivor Picks, Week 9

All right, its well past the point we had some football content in this blog. Unfortunately, I think I’ve said that before. Everytime I pop over to the blog and see “Football by Mike” at the top, I start feeling guilty. Today I can’t take the guilt, so I have to write something. Our second half of the season football survivor pool starts this week, so I’ll throw in my two cents about picks to think about for survivor (a.k.a. last man standing, a.k.a. king of the hill, a.k.a. elimination) pools.

Let me preface by saying, this is not an easy week by any stretch. Typically I don’t like picking division games, away teams and the extremely unpredictable Jacksonville Jaguars. There are a bunch of expected to be lopsided division games this weekend, which have to get some consideration due to lack of other better choices. In fact, I’m going to end up breaking all 3 of my rules of thumb this week. Hopefully that doesn’t bust me out of my pools.

Here are what I would consider the top 3 pool pick considerations for Week 9.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals – I don’t trust Jacksonville, which is why I have my very own rule of thumb just for them. This perennial dark horse darling is sitting at 3-4, with their biggest win this season by only 7 points, week 6 at Denver. They are coming off a 6 point loss, at home, to Cleveland. One issue with the Jags is they play every game close to the vest. They aren’t going to overwhelm an opponent, so it always gives that opponent an opportunity to win it. It doesn’t stir a lot of confidence in backing this team for a survivor pool of all things.

However, their opponent is the winless Bengals. The Jags still consider themselves playoff hopefuls in the rather wide open AFC, even if their division title is falling quickly out of reach. The Jags are better than the Bengals statistically up and down the board except one category – pass defense. Concern for the Jags is they cannot get pressure on opposing QBs, so they’ve really been burned through the air. The odds of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who continues to start over the injured Carson Palmer, taking advantage of this however, are not good.

Can the Bengals play like a caged animal? I don’t think so. This is just a bad football team that has tuned out its coach. The inmates are running the asylum here. The Bengals are heading into their long awaited bye week, which means they probably already have their bags packed and minds somewhere else. Chalk up loss number 9. Pick the Jags.

2. New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys – Here is another rule of thumb down the drain, don’t pick a division game. But if we’re going to break it, then we might as well do it for arguably the toughest division and one of the marquee matchups of the week. Lets face it, these teams are going in opposite directions right now. Other than that blip against the Browns, the Giants are playing great defense, rolling with the running game and QB Eli Manning is not making mistakes. The perfect recipe for success.

The Cowboys are still without Tony Romo due to a broken pinkie finger (expected back after their bye), Jason Witten may or may not suit up after suffering a broken rib and the secondary is a mess. They flirted with inserting Brooks Bollinger this week over Brad Johnson, but decided to stick with Johnson. This team might be desperate for a win, but they sure don’t have the confidence to back it up. Unless the Cowboys can play completely out of their minds, the Giants have enough talent and desire to knock off a division rival to win this one going away.

3. Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions – Another division game! Yes, but also another winless team playing on the road against a well coached, disciplined team that shouldn’t take a win for granted. Although the Bengals and Lions sure make it tough not to take them for granted, don’t they?

The Lions have stayed in ball games the past few weeks, losing by 2, 7 and 8 points, but the offense here is so poor with an adjusted average of under 80 yards rushing and under 160 yards passing per week, they just aren’t capable of generating enough points to win this game. The Bears defense is not the dominant defense it once was, but they should hold the Lions to 17 or less. Meanwhile, the Bears offense has played pretty well, with reasonable balance passing vs. rushing, even though rookie RB Matt Forte has slowed down a bit from the early going. The Lions defense is bad on both sides, so the Bears can pick and choose how to get this done.

Here is a funny history quirk, which means nothing but is interesting none the less. Every season from 2004 the same team has won both home and away games of the Bears-Lions series. There hasn’t been a split of games since 2003. The Bears beat the Lions back in Week 5 this season by a score of 34-7.

That’s it. Hopefully this time next week I’m still calling them “rules of thumbs” and not “rules to never, ever, ever break”. Good luck!