NFL Football Survivor Pool Tips and Picks – Week 1

Posted on September 6, 2011 by Antonio D'Arcangelis
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The survivor pool concept is a simple one: Don’t. Ever. Lose.

But picking a different winner every week presents some challenges for obvious reasons. You can’t take the same team twice, so eventually you’ll have to gamble on some marginal squads. No team finishes the 16-game NFL season without picking up at least one win, so you can’t just take whoever plays the Cincinnati Bengals every week. And let’s remember – it’s freakin’ football – so “Any Given Sunday” and all that jazz is in play, big time.

For the most part, I like to stay away from division games and low-scoring, defense-oriented teams, especially toward the beginning of the season, but sometimes you have to take a chance. Week 1 has some tough games, so you’ll have to trust the general projections we’ve all seen in season previews and tumble into the madness headlong. With that said, let’s take a gander at my pick suggestions for the first slate of games:

 
Pick #3: Arizona Cardinals over Carolina Panthers

The revolution has started in Phoenix. With the addition of Kevin Kolb, the Arizona Cardinals added a strong, accurate arm that can supplement a talented receiving corps. The Arizona defense is dynamic, flexible and adept at creating turnovers – a perfect storm for this matchup against a rudderless Carolina Panthers squad. Relying on a largely untested QB (Kolb) in a new city isn’t my first choice, but if you’re brave enough to avoid the following powerhouse AFC teams (New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers) at the outset of your survivor journey, you can’t do much better than the capable Cards at home.

 
Pick #2: New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins

The Pats may be on the road and facing a division rival, but they’re still the Pats – a team that made big strides in shoring up their offensive and defensive ranks in the offseason. While it’s a pretty safe bet that the Pats take this one, I’d look elsewhere – saving this juggernaut for a future week when your options are a little more limited.

 
Pick #1: San Diego Chargers over Minnesota Vikings

The Chargers tend to start off a little slow, but this is still a lock. The Vikings have a new old quarterback, a debilitated offensive line, and will most likely struggle to put together a winning season. Donovan McNabb is still talented and can throw the long ball, but he’ll see loads of pressure from the diabolical Chargers pass rush. Offensively, there are only a couple teams with as much firepower as San Diego. QB Philip Rivers is poised for an MVP-caliber season, and the full range of weapons he commands (Antonio Gates, Vincent Jackson, Malcolm Floyd, Ryan Mathews, Mike Tolbert, etc.) is on another level. Mark it down.

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Jennings, Matsui, Willingham

Posted on August 5, 2011 by Rick Milleman

Stock Up

Desmond Jennings, OF, TB – Jennings is a much-ballyhooed prospect and a lot is expected from the youngster, just not this fast. Jennings has burst onto the scene with a .354 batting average, 3 homers, 10 RBI, 9 runs scored and 5 stolen bases in only 48 at-bats. No, he won’t keep up this pace for the rest of the season, but he will produce for your team. If you are in a keeper league and this guy is somehow still available, pounce now.

Hideki Matsui, DH, OAK – Matsui is on a tear. Godzilla is hitting .500/2/10/11 over the last two weeks and is a must have for his current hot streak. His position eligibility is tricky, but you likely don’t have a designated hitter/utility player hitting this well right now, so a pickup is warranted.

Josh Willingham, OF, OAK – Willingham was the subject of a lot of trade deadline rumors as an inexpensive and able-bodied outfielder. He’s playing a lot better than able-bodied right now, posting a .292/2/14/10 line over the last two weeks. If you need help in the outfield, this guy can surely get you what you need.

Jesus Guzman, 1B, SD – Guzman is not the player most thought would be manning first base for San Diego. But with Anthony Rizzo’s struggles and Kyle Blanks banishment to left field, Guzman has taken over and is fitting in quite well. Hitting .361/2/7/9/2 over the last two weeks makes him a guy worth considering if you need to grab a hot bat to help you with your playoff drive.

Rick Ankiel, OF, WAS – Ankiel has power, but he is also very streaky. He’s in the middle of one of his hot streaks, so now is your chance. Over the last two weeks, Ankiel has hit .308/3/10/9 so ride out the hot streak while the getting is good, but always be ready to cut bait quickly with Ankiel as the hot streak will come to a screeching halt.

Mike Carp, OF, SEA – Another prospect with hype, Carp has a bright future. But the future isn’t now and this hot streak will not last. You can enjoy the hot streak that he produced .348/2/13/6 over the last two weeks, but just know that it will likely end soon.

 
Stock Down

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, PIT – Alvarez came into 2011 with much anticipation that this would be his breakthrough season. After struggling at the plate and with injuries, this is mostly a lost season for the future star. The last two weeks have been a lot of the same for Alvarez’s season, hitting .222/3/1/4. Third base is a very thin position, but this guy isn’t your answer right now.

Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR – Hill’s 2010 was a washout due to injuries and many were expecting the power and average to return. Instead, he has flashed speed unseen in his big league career, but little else of quality from a likely early-to-mid round draft pick. The last two weeks have been very trying for Hill owners as he has gone .231/1/1/4/0. Owners can live with the putrid average as long as he’s producing in the other categories, but that isn’t the case right now. It may be time to look for a replacement.

Bobby Abreu, OF, LAA – Abreu is showing his age as the bat is slowing down. His last two weeks have produced .150/1/4/5/1 and the season hasn’t been a heck of a lot better. Though he has had a strong career, the sun is setting and he’s probably not worth a roster spot in the future.

Gordon Beckham, 2B, CWS – Like most of the White Sox team, Beckham has struggled all season. The last two weeks have been especially disappointing as he has hit .200/1/1/2. This guy has a lot of talent and plays a thin position, but he just hasn’t produced.

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Cozart, Betemit, Willis, Hughes

Posted on July 22, 2011 by Rick Milleman

As the baseball season nears the trading deadline, let’s look back at what is trending with the moves that have already been made and recent callups. Several players have newfound playing time while others find their playing time squeezed. This isn’t as much about who the best players are, but who is the best players are right now, which can be the difference between lowering your ratios a few extra points or grabbing a few extra strikeouts now since they might be hard to come by in September.

 
Stock Up

Zack Cozart, SS, CIN – The much-ballyhooed prospect finally got his shot. Of course, it helps that Edgar Renteria and Paul Janish have sucked so bad that the Reds are willing to give the kid all the rope he needs. In his first nine games in the bigs Cozart is hitting .333 with a homer and 2 RBI. He’s not going to be a huge offensive force, but is definitely worth owning if you need middle infield help.

Wilson Betemit, 3B, DET – With Brandon Inge sucking, the Tigers needed a hitter for their playoff run. They traded for a solid hitter in Betemit, who was quickly losing at-bats to uber-prospect Mike Moustakas. You won’t get a lot from Betemit, but he is a very solid player who won’t hurt your batting average and will provide some runs and ribbies. With the thin state at the hot corner, Betemit is more than a capable replacement.

Dontrelle Willis, SP, CIN – Willis has found his way back to the majors and is looking good early. With two starts under his belt, Dontrelle has an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.31. His FIP is 2.68 and his xFIP is 3.12, meaning he is actually pitching better than his 3.38 ERA suggests. Don’t look for the D-Train of his early Marlin years, but a solid starter with a good offense backing him should result in a benefit to your team.

Phil Hughes, SP, NYY – Hughes is back up and looks healthy. His average fastball is back up over 90 MPH and his new curveball is giving him more confidence. He may not ever live up to the hype of his days as a prospect, but he is a solid starter for the time being and remember that he has the Yankees offense backing him up.

Brandon Belt, 1B/OF, SF – Belt is back in San Francisco and with Aubrey Huff struggling at the plate and with injuries, Belt will get the chance to show he’s ready to stay. He may not be ready for the breakthrough to stardom, but Belt is ready to give you solid production.

Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, SD – Blanks is being called up after Anthony Rizzo flopped. Blanks raked at triple-A Tuscon to the tune of .351/11/35. He missed most of 2010 while recovering from an injury, but hit 10 homers and nine doubles in only 148 at-bats with the Padres in 2009. The man has power, though your average might suffer as the batting average seems very unsustainable. If you need a power surge, this is might be your man.

 
Stock Down

Jeff Keppinger, 2B, SF – The move to San Francisco brings a lot of question marks to the remainder of Keppinger’s 2011 season. There isn’t a full time position open to him, so he may be a super-utility player. Also, the Giants offense is less productive than the Houston offense and his new home park is less hitter friendly than his old Houston home. In the end, he probably found himself in a worse situation from a fantasy standpoint.

Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU – With the Keppinger trade, the Houston 2B position was opened for Altuve, a guy with a good batting eye and a little speed. He will likely struggle as he only has 36 games above the single-A level, but he might be useful down the road if you have a spot on your bench of your dynasty team for a few years.

Cody Ransom, SS, ARI – The main beneficiary of Stephen Drew’s broken ankle, Ransom will finally get a chance to start at the Major League level. There’s a reason that a 35 year old hasn’t had a chance to start full time and that’s because he’s not very good. Yes, he mashed triple-A, but this ain’t the Pacific Coast League. Don’t go here unless you are truly desperate for a warm body.

Brandon Inge, 3B, DET – What more do you need to know other than Inge was sent down to triple-A even though he has 10-and-5 rights. He wants to be a Tiger lifer, even if it means little to no MLB at-bats. Cut bait.

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Francoeur, Bay, Sandoval, Cuddyer

Posted on July 9, 2011 by Rick Milleman

Stock Up

Jeff Francoeur, OF, KC – Jeff Francoeur made an appearance here earlier in the season and his renaissance season continues. No, he’s not putting up big numbers like he did in his first few seasons in the league, but he’s earning his pay. Over the last two weeks Frenchy is hitting .318 with three home runs, and 12 RBI while scoring 10 runs and even stealing four bases. There is no way he will continue at this level, but if he can contribute in all five categories, he’s well worth rostering to start the second half.

Jason Bay, OF, NYM – Ever since signing his mega-deal with the Mets, Bay has been a bust with underwhelming play mixed in with a lot of time off due to injuries. Over the last two weeks, he’s put up .326/3/13/8/2. There’s no telling how long this will continue, so enjoy the ride.

Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, SF – Sandoval got off to a quick start to his career with a nice splash in 2008 and a big rookie campaign in 2009, but he struggled mightily in 2010 and was often benched during last season’s playoffs since his bat was allergic to baseballs. Panda is a streaky player and he is in the middle of one of those hot streaks right now (.351/3/12/8/1), so grab him and go with it.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – Freeman isn’t supposed to have a lot of homer power, so the five dingers over the last two weeks is a bit of a surprise. Still, that kind of hot streak is something worth a look to see if it can help your fantasy team before he comes back down to reality.

Danny Valencia, 3B, MIN – Valencia is more of a glove-man at the hot corner than a big stick, but with all the injuries you might be stuck with a try at anyone available. A solid average with no power is the expectation here, but the three homers and 12 RBI over the last two weeks are a great boost to your team. See if this can continue past the break if you are in need of help.

Michael Cuddyer, 1B/2B/3B/OF, MIN – The Twins as a team have been hot, so it is not surprising to see another player on this list. Cuddyer’s position flexibility is reason enough to roster him, but the hot streak is reason to start him anywhere you have an opening. Over the last two weeks, Cuddyer has posted .316/3/10/8 and this is the kind of help that can get you through the tough injuries or cold streaks during a long season.

Dan Uggla, 2B, ATL – Uggla’s average is ugly, but this guy’s game is power. His average may never be what you want, but he’s hit four homers and 10 ribbies over the last two weeks, so ride the power surge as he looks to be figuring it out right now.

 
Stock Down

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS – Zimmerman missed more than two months due to injury and still doesn’t seem to be back to full strength. He’s hitting .229/2/7/3 over the last two weeks, so sit him if you have a better option and hope for better results after some rest during the All Star Break.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, BOS – Youkilis is also struggling right now to the tune of .258/1/5/4 despite the rest of the Red Sox crushing it. In the middle of a high powered offense like the BoSox, he’s likely to catch the fever too, so hang on to him and play him unless you have a much better option to start until Youk gets hot again.

Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – If you haven’t already done so, cut bait on Dunn. His bat has been awful and doesn’t look to recover.

Derek Jeter, SS, NYY – The excitement of watching just the 23rd player in baseball history get to 3,000 hits is big stuff, but watching Jeter get there is painful. First we had to wait through the injury, now the anemic performances. He’s just 3-for-13 since his return and hopefully you’ve got someone else to play until after the break.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL – Weeks is currently struggling (.170/1/2/8/0) and has been wrangled into the Home Run Derby during the All Star festivities. This event is usually detrimental to a player’s game swing for some time after the event, so finding a place on your bench for Weeks over the next few weeks might be a good decision.

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Pena, Wigginton, Peralta, Beachy

Posted on July 1, 2011 by Rick Milleman

Stock Up

Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC – Pena is the kind of player that will give you your money’s worth every time he swings. Unfortunately, he misses a lot more than most other players and his career .240 batting average is the kind of thing that scares a lot of fantasy owners away, despite the huge power. Right now is the time to add the big fella, as he has hit .265 with eight home runs and 14 RBI over the last two weeks. That kind of average is very palatable when you are considering the power surge. Ride his hot streak but be ready to cut bait as the big numbers tail off.

Ty Wigginton, 1B/2B/3B/OF, COL – Wigginton is eligible all over the diamond and has a nice power stroke. Over the last two weeks, he’s posted .298/7/12 with 10 runs scored. As long as the Rockies are giving him regular at-bats, he’ll be an asset to your team, but you definitely want to get in on this current run.

Jhonny Peralta, 3B/SS, DET – Peralta continues his unlikely hot hitting. Over the fortnight, he is mashing to a .396/4/13/8 tune. Few shortstops are performing at a very high level, so Peralta might be more than a short-term hot streak, he might just be your rest of the season solution. Grab him if he is sitting on your waiver wire.

J.J. Hardy, SS, BAL – Hardy has found his swing again and is rewarding his owners. He is hitting .340/5/10/10 over the last two weeks so enjoy the ride, just don’t expect it to last for a long time. Be ready to find a replacement when he falls back down to Earth.

Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS – Espinosa is another middle infielder who is on a hot streak. Right now, he is in the middle of a .294/4/11/7 run with three steals to boot. He’s a solid play if you are desperate.

Chris Getz, 2B, CWS – Yet another middle infielder who is exceeding expectations, Getz is doing most of his damage with his legs. Over the last two weeks, he has posted a .388/0/2/7/6 line and provides a lot of help in the steals category for those needing a few more. The average is also surging right now, just don’t expect any power.

Jemile Weeks, 2B, OAK – While we are on the run of middle infielders, let’s stop and visit Rickie Weeks’ little brother. Jemile is a good average/speed guy, but will offer much less power than his big brother Rickie. Over the last two weeks, Jemile has posted a .292/0/4/7/5 line and will pile up the steals as long as Oakland keeps rolling him out at 2B each night. The A’s traded Mark Ellis to the Colorado Rockies, so it seems like their plan is to stick with Weeks.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – Freeman has found his groove recently and his numbers are showing it. He posted .292/3/9/6 over the last two weeks and has even been moved to the heart of the Atlanta batting order. He’s a great long-term keeper, but grab him for his power surge right now.

Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL – Beachy is back from the injury that cost him six weeks of playing time. He’s back with a flourish, striking out 20 in the two appearances since his return while allowing only two runs over those 12 innings pitched. If he’s available, pick him up more for his ratios than for the strikeouts, which aren’t likely to continue at that rate.

 
Stock Down

Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – Dunn is suffering his worst MLB season for no obvious reason. Over the last two weeks, he has managed two singles, a double, 16 strikeouts, and no other stats of use to your fantasy team. Is the change of leagues hurting his performance or maybe the designated hitter role? Whatever has turned him from a consistent slugger to someone playing himself out of the league, it is time to find another alternative. Dunn looks done.

Hunter Pence, OF, HOU – After Pence went on a 23 game hitting streak, the back problems flared up and have rendered him helpless. Since the hitting streak, Pence has gone 9-for-38 with only 3 RBI and 2 runs scored in nine games played. Sit him on your bench until he gets past this injury.

Joe Mauer, C, MIN – Mauer has been battling injuries all season and it looks like he will be hitting from the 1B and DH slots from here on out. Mauer is the best hitting catcher in baseball when healthy, but he isn’t that right now. If someone in your league is willing to pay close to full value on him, pull the trigger.

Jay Bruce, OF, CIN – Bruce is struggling in June after picking up NL Player of the Month honors in May. He’s scuffling right now, so sit him until he finds his form again.

Zack Greinke, SP, KC – Greinke was zooming along at 6-0 in his first seven starts since starting the season with a cracked rib injury. Then the last two weeks saw some awful numbers pop up to the tune of 1-2 with an 8.79 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Since his strikeouts are still there, don’t worry. In fact, this might be a good time to buy low.

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Morse, Boesch, Ludwick, Niese

Posted on June 11, 2011 by Rick Milleman

Baseball season is moving right along, but remember more than 60% of the season is still to play, so big gaps can still be made up with good decisions and some luck.

 
Stock Up

Michael Morse, 1B/OF, WAS – Morse is still rocking the ball and is back in the Stock Up column again this week. Over the last two weeks, he hit .357 with 4 homers, 15 RBI, 10 runs scored and even added a stolen base. This guy started out ice cold but is a great play if he is still lingering on your waiver wire.

Brennan Boesch, OF, DET – Like Morse, Boesch also started the season without a full-time gig, but his bat is hot. Take advantage of the .340/5/14/11 over the last two weeks and assume it will continue for a bit longer. The average will eventually cool off, but the power should continue all season.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC – If this highly touted prospect is still on your waiver wire, you need to stop reading this and go pick him up right now. Hosmer is a legitimate bat and will give you power and average. He put up .371/2/14/11/1 over the fortnight and is likely to produce all season.

Corey Patterson, OF, TOR – Patterson finds himself on this list for the second straight week. When the opportunity presented itself, Patterson was ready to answer the call. During the last two weeks, he has hit .322/3/8/13/2 and will continue to get full time at bats as long as he’s producing.

Miguel Olivo, C, SEA – If you are looking for a hitting catcher, Olivo might be your answer. He hit .277/4/15/8/1 during the last two week stretch, so ride the wave.

Alexi Casilla, 2B/SS, MIN – If you need steals, Casilla might be your man. While hitting .321 with six ribbies and 8 runs scored in the last two weeks, Casilla also ripped off five bases and is a great middle infield play right now.

Ryan Ludwick, OF, STL – Ludwick is another repeat offender on the Stock Up list. In the last two weeks, Luddy has put up .396/0/7/9. He’s not hitting for power, but he is hitting the ball well right now so grab him and hope the power flares up.

Adam Kennedy, 1B/2B/3B, SEA – Kennedy has a lot of position flexibility and is getting playing time at the expense of other Mariners who aren’t hitting as well. Kennedy is hitting in the middle of the order and playing most anywhere around the infield while hitting .317/1/7/9/1 in the last two weeks. This is a very odd situation for a utility infielder with a historically weak bat to see this kind of attention, but why should you argue with this kind of production?

Jon Niese, SP, NYM – Niese is 4-1 with 36 K, a 2.25 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP since May 1. His home starts are significantly better than those on the road, so he’s a great spot starter.

 
Stock Down

Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI – Howard is really struggling without the complimentary pieces that he is accustomed to having around him. This season, he’s missed Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown and others. Over the last two weeks he’s posted .191/2/10/3 and isn’t getting too many quality pitches to hit. If someone is offering you full value, you might want to jump as he’s likely to find himself without much help for the rest of the season.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CLE – Choo is about the only Cleveland Indian who is struggling at the plate this season as the magical summer on Lake Erie continues for a most unlikely team. Over the last two weeks, Choo has posted .209/0/0/3 and it is unclear if he can get it together any time soon. He is hitting .169 with runners in scoring position this season and a recent DUI arrest may not be good for getting his focus back any time soon.

Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – Dunn has hit 38 or more home runs in each of the last seven seasons and a new home at one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball was supposed to elevate him into the 50-homer club. That only works if you can actually make contact, which is a big problem for Dunn these days. During the last two weeks, Dunn has only managed .143/1/3/5 and he may have the same disease that Pat Burrell suffered while with Tampa Bay. That disease is one where a player plays awful defense in the National League, while still hitting well. The obvious answer is a designated hitter gig in the American League, but for whatever reason it brings down their hitting. Dunn will most likely regain his stroke if he can get back to the NL, but there doesn’t seem to be anyone interested in his contract, which still guarantees him more than $50 million.

Jon Lester, SP, BOS – Lester dominated in April and then has struggled in May. His average fastball is still at 92 MPH, so he seems healthy. He’s probably just hit a rough patch that will work itself out and there is nothing to worry over even though his ERA has risen from 2.33 to 3.96 since his May 3 start.

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Ortiz, Morse, Espinosa, Patterson

Posted on June 4, 2011 by Rick Milleman

Stock Up

David Ortiz, DH, BOS – Ortiz has built quite a reputation as a slugger over the last decade. A guy with a lot of power and a solid average started to show his age with a very slow start to the 2011 season. Many fantasy owners panicked and abandoned ship. He has hit .400 with six homers, nine RBI, and 13 runs scored over the last two weeks. Now is the time to grab him if he happens to be on your waiver wire or make an offer if his owner hasn’t noticed the fire that Big Papi has lit.

Michael Morse, OF/1B, WAS – After a big spring training, Morse came out in April very flat. He struggled so much that he even found himself on the bad side of a platoon with Laynce Nix and was losing a lot of playing time. When Adam LaRoche went down with an injury, Morse took over the full time job at first base and has flourished. In the last two weeks, Morse has pounded to a .395/5/13/8 tune. He won’t keep up the torrid pace, but he should be a fantasy asset for the rest of the season.

Raul Ibanez, OF, PHI – Ibanez is a relic from another epoch. He is a streaky player these days, so hang on for the ride as long as he’s hot. Over the fortnight he posted a .298/5/13/11 so grab and hang on for the wild ride.

Allen Craig, 2B/OF, STL – Craig plays most days, but isn’t a full-time player. In the last two weeks, he’s hit .450/3/10/7 with a stolen base. Right now he’s hot and the position flexibility is reason enough to grab him and pile up the stats as long as he’s hitting.

Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS – At a thin position, Espinosa is a good grab at middle infield right now. If you’ve watched Espinosa over the last two weeks, you’ve seen him put up .268/5/11/7/1, and you know he’s a good buy. If not, grab him and use him until his bat cools off and then toss him aside for the next hot thing.

Corey Patterson, OF, TOR – Patterson has found a regular job in Toronto’s outfield thanks to a few injuries and is doing everything he can to prove he belongs there. The much-heralded former prospect seems to finally be realizing his potential and is more than just a short term pickup. Yes, his .311/2/8/11/1 line over the last two weeks is nice, but he’s certainly worth watching in keeper leagues to see if he can keep it up.

Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA – Now that Kendrys Morales is out for the season, Trumbo’s job as the Angels first baseman seems very safe. As long as he keeps hitting like this, his job is definitely safe. The last two weeks saw him post a .280/4/10/6/2 line so grab him if he’s available.

 
Stock Down

Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA – We finally know why Ramirez struggled so mightily during the first month of the season as he has been playing with back and leg problems. He has been placed on the DL and will hopefully heal and be the old Han-Ram we know for the second half. This might be a good chance to talk his owner into selling Ramirez for a “more reliable” player.

Matt Holliday, OF, STL – Holliday has been injured and struggling of late, going .200/1/1/3 over the last two weeks while picking up only 15 at-bats. Holliday has a history of injuries but also a history of putting up big numbers when healthy. This might be a great time to buy low if you can get his owner to ignore all the All-Star votes.

Dan Uggla, 2B, ATL – Uggla typically struggles in April, but turns it on in May. Well, this year is not typical for Uggla. He claims he is pressing to live up to his new $52 million contract, which might be justified by the fact he’s swinging at a lot of balls out of the strike zone and hitting just .118 with runners in scoring position. Regardless, he’s hitting .075/0/1/0 in the last two weeks and just isn’t worth starting right now. Don’t waive him, but if you can find someone looking to pay full value in trade, this might be a good time to rid yourself of a guy who simply isn’t comfortable at the plate this season.

Drew Stubbs, OF, CIN – Stubbs was the chic 30-30 draft pick this season. Many believed that he was ready to bring the average up to a respectable range while hitting 30 homers and stealing 30 bases for your team. He’s hit a lull and has only put up .188/0/3/7/2 in the last two weeks so sit him until he heats up again.

Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, TB – Zobrist wasn’t supposed to be a fantasy stud, but he was supposed to be a significant producer at a very thin position and have position flexibility as well. Since his monstrous 10 RBI day in a double header on April 28, he has struggled badly. He has hit .248/2/5 in those 30 games and doesn’t seem to be showing signs of breaking out any time soon. Unless you are in a very deep league, cut bait and find a more useful bat.

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Ludwick, Maybin, Pena, Collmenter

Posted on May 20, 2011 by Rick Milleman

Stock Up

Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD – Ludwick put together a big week hitting .440 with three homers, 10 RBI and scoring 5 runs. That is quite a feat for a guy playing in an extreme pitchers park on an anemic offense. Don’t expect a repeat of his monstrous 2008 season, but a good season could be in the cards for Luddy.

Justin Turner, 2B, NYM – Turner is taking full advantage of the second base vacancy that was created by injuries and poor play. Over the last week, he has piled up .400/1/10/4 and is trying to make his case for the starting team. The Mets and Turner are hot right now and he could be a very useful middle infield piece for the time being.

Cameron Maybin, OF, SD – Maybin has been a highly regarded prospect for several years now and the luster is beginning to wear off as he has not lived up to his billing. Maybe a change to San Diego and the relaxing SoCal lifestyle has finally helped him find his place in baseball. He has put up .368/2/5/5 with a stolen base over the last week and seems to be the catalyst in the suddenly hot Padres offense.

Ronny Cedeno, SS, PIT – Cedeno has been losing some starts to Brandon Wood, but should find more starts with weeks like this one: .444/1/4/5. Cedeno has always had a little pop in his bat, but he usually struggles with batting average, meaning that this isn’t likely to last. But enjoy the ride while he’s providing you with quality numbers from the very thin shortstop position.

Brad Hawpe, 1B/OF, SD – Yet another Padre who is hot, Hawpe has crushed the ball to a .381/1/3/6 tune over the last week. This guy has always had the goods, but keeping it all together for lengths of time was always his problem. Enjoy it as he’ll probably add some homer power to these numbers.

Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC – Is that the same Carlos Pena who had great difficulty keeping his batting average above the Mendoza Line? Yes it is and he’s smoking the ball right now on the North Side with a .316/2/5/4. He’s always had great power, but ride him while the average is good.

Josh Collmenter, SP, ARI – Collmenter was the focus of a prospect report last winter and he seems to be living up to his billing. His delivery is tough for hitters as the ball seems to come out from right above his head. He’s 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP in two starts and seven relief appearances. As long as he keeps pitching like this, he’ll keep his rotation slot.

Ryan Vogelsong, SP, SF – Vogelsong has been a journeyman minor leaguer for quite a few years and San Francisco has found the right spot for him. He’s 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in four starts and two relief appearances. With question marks surrounding Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner, Vogelsong should keep his spot in the rotation as long as he keeps pitching well.

Colby Lewis, SP, TEX – Lewis had a breakout season in 2010 after a journeyman’s career. He struggled in his first four starts going 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA and only 14 strikeouts, but he has really turned it around in the last four starts, going 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 24 strikeouts. Buy now and point out the .500 record and hope that his owner hasn’t noticed the reversal of fortunes.

 
Stock Down

Albert Pujols, 1B, STL – Pujols got a second game this season at 3B and it is very possible that he might just find three more this season to get to five (an eligibility qualifying mark in many leagues), but his bat has been awful in the last week (.250/0/1/1/1). It has more to do with the surrounding cast than a Pujols slump, as Colby Rasmus, David Freese, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman have all sustained injuries. Without any coverage, there’s no reason for pitchers to throw Phat Albert anything decent.

Evan Longoria, 3B, TB – Longoria is still not back to full speed yet after his oblique injury. He posted a .185/0/0/3 line, something we might expect from Eva Longoria, not Evan. As he regains his strength and stamina, Longo will be back to top form.

Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI – Howard is suffering from the same lack of help that Pujols is facing. Without Chase Utley, Domonic Brown and Jayson Werth, Howard doesn’t see too many worthwhile pitches. As the team gets healthy and the summer heats up in Citizens Band Box Park, Howard will post the numbers you’ve come to expect.

John Danks, SP, CHW – Danks hasn’t been miserable this season, he’s just been unlucky. At 0-6, the quick glance looks bad but his K/9 rate of 6.48 is slightly below is career rate of 6.94 but his batting average against is .274 compared with a career mark of .251 which is probably caused by a BABIP of .313 compared to his career average of .286. His walks are also up a little bit, so he may be causing some of his own damage. There’s nothing that says he should be 0-6, but there’s also no indications that he’ll turn things around anytime soon. He’s a great guy to buy low and stash, but he’s probably not ready to start for your team until he shows some serious upward movement in his game.

Ryan Franklin, RP, STL – If the fact that Franklin lost his closer role didn’t tell you he’s sucking this year, maybe his 12.46 ERA and 2.54 WHIP over the last two weeks will. If he’s still on your team, dump him now. The Cardinals have two legitimate closer options in Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez to make sure that Franklin is nothing more than a setup man for the rest of his days in St. Louis.

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Peralta, Cabrera, Hinske, Davis

Posted on May 13, 2011 by Rick Milleman

Stock Up

Jhonny Peralta, 3B/SS, DET – Peralta has filled the shortstop slot in Detroit with a .476BA/3HR/8RBI/5R line in the last week. That’s good stuff from a guy who was shuffled out of Cleveland last season because he wasn’t performing as well as he did earlier in his career. Peralta is still relatively young (age 28 season), so he’s also a decent keeper in very deep leagues.

Erick Aybar, SS, LAA – Aybar is a repeat performer on our list again this week. He’s put up a .362/0/8/7 with seven stolen bases in the last two weeks. It looks like he’s trying to make up for all the lost time that he spent on the disabled list in April.

Melky Cabrera, OF, KC – Cabrera is another repeat performer on our list, going .244/2/8/9/2 during the fortnight. Cabrera is not likely to be a regular for the rest of the season, but he’s a great guy to ride while he’s hot.

Eric Hinske, 1B/OF, ATL – Atlanta’s pinch hitter is on a tear, despite only 10 at-bats over the last week. In those 10 at-bats, Hinske has six hits, three of which are homers, five ribbies, and four runs scored. He’s not going to get regular at-bats unless there is a rash of injuries, but he gives you quality out of his few opportunities.

Austin Jackson, OF, DET – Jackson seems to be a very streaky player. The key here is to know when to hold them and when to fold them. Over the last week he’s compiled a .379/1/7/4/1line, so enjoy is while it lasts.

Rajai Davis, OF, TOR – The Blue Jays outfield is hitting well right now and Davis seems to be out in front. He posted a .333/0/2/5/4 line last week and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Davis is a great option for steals if you need them.

Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA – Ramirez was a regular on the Stock Down list in April, but seems to be fixing things. We all knew it was going to happen, and hopefully you were able to pry him away from his owner before the ship was righted. The last week saw him post .286/1/2/4/3 and you know there are only better things to come for the rest of the year.

Homer Bailey, SP, CIN – Bailey has been a highly touted prospect for a number of years and it was looking like he would never achieve that lofty status. He has certainly not disappointed in the last week as he is 2-0 with12 strikeouts, a 0.69 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP.

Drew Storen, RP, WAS – Storen is trying to lock down the closer role in Washington and last week sure helped, going 2-0 with two saves, three strikeouts, a 0.00 ERA and a 0.43 WHIP. This guy has serious stuff and the only way he’s not a long term elite closer is if he is moved into the rotation.

 
Stock Down

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET – Cabrera always seems to find offseason problems, but he is most comfortable on a baseball field doing what he does best: hitting. He tore the cover off the ball in April, but has been slumping over the last week with a measly .125/0/3/5 line. This guy is an elite player, so have faith that he will turn it around any day.

Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL – Gonzalez is not a one year wonder, he’s the real deal. Despite the .130/1/2/2/0 line over the last week, he’ll give you your money’s worth. Stick with his and he will reward your patience.

Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY – Though a bad last week in the power and speed categories, his batting average is holding at .273. He just needed a plunk in the head Wednesday night to wake him up. Look for the power and speed to return very soon.

David Wright, 3B, NYM – Wright has been unusually streaky this season. He either tears it up or falls apart and right now he is in free fall mode posting .150/0/0/1/1 over the last seven days. This is just another case of an elite player that is going to fix things soon and you are better off keeping him in your lineup unless you have an excellent backup in the meantime.

Mat Latos, SP, SD – Latos has been quite an enigma. He had a super 2010 season and seems to be suffering from a bit of the old sophomore slump as he is 0-5 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.35WHIP and a 34/14 strikeout to walk ratio. Latos has a ton of potential and might take a bit longer to return to the form that caused many see him as a future superstar. Don’t give up on him in keeper leagues as he is the real deal.

Francisco Liriano, SP, MIN – This is what we have come to expect from Liriano: a bad game following a good one. He pitched a no hitter (while giving up six walks) last week in a start that might have been his last if it weren’t for the heroics. Then he came out and pitched a real stinker with 3 IP, 4ER, 3BB, and 1K in a losing effort. Liriano is a ticking time bomb and you should run away as fast as you can. He will have moments of brilliance, but he will also have many more that are awful.

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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Bourgeois, Aybar, Trumbo, McLouth

Posted on May 6, 2011 by Rick Milleman

Stock Up

Jason Bourgeois, OF, HOU – Bourgeois is the recipient of playing time due to injuries and he has made the most of it. Over the last week, Bourgeois has raked at a .500 clip while ripping off six bases. Throw in a handful of ribbies and a trio of runs and the Houston brass has a decision to make each day as to who is going to sit so Bourgeois can steal their at-bats.

Matt Joyce, OF, TB – Joyce is known as a gaps hitter. He’ll rack up a ton of doubles, but will likely not get a bunch of homeruns or hit for average. But the last seven days saw him hit .500/2/7 with four runs scored and even a stolen base. He has a lot of potential, but be aware that he is streaky and be ready to sit him when this hot streak wears off.

Erick Aybar, SS, LAA – After missing almost three weeks to injury, Aybar has turned it on this week. After posting a .367/0/5/5/4 line, he certainly is an intriguing roster possibility. Don’t look for power here, but the steals and batting average make for a nice middle infield bargain.

Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA – Trumbo is a highly regarded prospect who is simply a place holder for Kendrys Morales and his recovering leg. But Trumbo has decided he wants to stake his claim to Morales’ job and has put up a .400/3/8 mark on the week. In a keeper league, Trumbo is a must have. In a re-draft league, he is a solid play until Morales finally returns.

Nate McLouth, OF, ATL – The Nate McLouth who played for Atlanta the last season and a half seems to be gone and “Pittsburgh Nate” has returned. Though he is stuck near the bottom of Atlanta’s batting order, McLouth is putting it together again. He hit .429/2/4/6 last week and is a good buy low candidate.

John Buck, C, FLA – Buck is hitting for power and average with a .333/2/6/6 mark over the last week. The average isn’t likely to stay high, but you’ll get a good dose of power from the Marlins’ backstop.

Raul Ibanez, OF, PHI – Ibanez is a professional hitter, no matter how old he is. This guy can hit and is in the middle of one of his notable hot streaks. Latch on and see if he can continue the .400/2/5/5 for another week.

Melky Cabrera, OF, KC – Cabrera seems to be part of the surprising Royals hit parade. He hit .364/1/6/5/1 over the last week and will get playing time as long as he’s hot. As the Royals are calling up their youngsters, the veterans who don’t produce will sit, so watch Cabrera’s production carefully.

Alex Rios, OF, CWS – After starting the season’s first four weeks with a miserable .158/0/4 line, Rios is starting to figure it out. This guy is a top talent and will still pile up 20 homers and 30 steals on the season. If you can grab him now, you’ll still get most of those as he’s strung together .316/3/4/4/1 over the last seven days.

Vance Worley, SP, PHI – Worley tossed two gems as a fill in for the injured Joe Blanton. For an occasional spot start, Worley is a nice play, but he’s not nearly as good as the 2-0 record with 12 K’s, a 0.75 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP that he posted against two weak offenses.

 
Stock Down

Adam LaRoche, 1B, WAS – LaRoche is scuffling to a tune of .150/0/1 over the last week. He’s a notoriously slow starter and seems to be hitting an exceptionally rough patch right now. He’s the kind of hitter you want to target in early July to see if he can go on his annual late season tear.

Yunel Escobar, SS, TOR – Escobar has been bad since the beginning of the 2010 season, but this last week has seen him hit the depths of .130/0/1. There doesn’t seem to be a physical problem with Escobar, leading one to believe something is wrong with his approach to the game. He’s not someone that is recommended as a buy low unless he will cost you nothing.

Jorge Posada, C, NYY – The creaky-kneed Posada isn’t worth a whole lot with his bat. Of course he is hitting in the Yankees lineup and still qualifies at catcher, but unless he starts producing, he just isn’t a useful piece. The last week saw him go .227/0/2 so until he starts to hit, you can sit him on your bench or release him if you have a good backup option.

Magglio Ordonez, OF, DET – Ordonez is a shell of his former self before the injuries ravaged his body. The power stroke is gone and now he is just a .300-hitting outfielder with no speed, which isn’t very helpful to fantasy teams. Last week Mags hit .200/1/3, so don’t run out and buy him unless he really turns it around.

James Loney, 1B, LAD – Loney was never your traditional power-hitting first baseman, but now things have become so bad that he’s platooning with rookie Jerry Sands. Loney hit .267/0/1 last week and isn’t likely to help your team the rest of the way so cut bait.

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