NFL Picks, Week 11

Coming off a week in which nearly every game was tight until the very end, Week 11 may not turn out the same way. This week holds several less than attractive matchups. We get the return of the Giants and Texans off their byes, and all of the byes are done giving us a full slate of 16 games. A few of the leagues’ elite take on bottom feeders, and the Panthers and Dolphins kick things off for us Thursday night.

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

If I have learned anything this season, it’s to never bet against a team with more than one stud running back. Ronnie Brown is out. Carolina is at home. DeAngelo Williams is healthy. This one was pretty simple for me. Carolina has one of the top pass defenses in the league and with no element of surprise for Miami, Chad Henne is going to struggle. We shouldn’t count out that Ricky Williams is having a very quiet but great year. Who really knows what may go down on these short week games?

Prediction: 30-17 Panthers

Fantasy Player to Watch: Ricky Williams – 25+ touches, 110 + yards, TD

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions

If you close your eyes and say Browns at Lions the first thing you imagine is bad football with nobody in the seats. I expect several Lions fans to make it to this one. It may be their last chance to win another game this year. Brady Quinn is back at the helm for Cleveland and may even look worse than he did earlier in the year. I don’t see much scoring in this one but Kevin Smith and Calvin Johnson should provide enough fireworks to help obliterate last years’ win total and get number 2.

Prediction: 23-13 Lions

FPTW: Calvin Johnson – 100+ yards, TD

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

You never know which Green Bay team will show up. One week they are Super Bowl contenders and the next, not even playoff worthy. San Francisco always shows up the exact same, power running (inside and off tackle), short passing, and solid defense. The stingy Packer defense should contain Frank Gore enough to get a W. San Francisco got away with one last week against the Bears, but don’t expect Aaron Rodgers to hand them the game like Jay Cutler did.

Prediction: 34-24 Packers

FPTW: Aaron Rodgers – 300+ yards, 3 TD

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

Since the release of Larry Johnson, the Chiefs have played well. Matt Cassel seems to be settling into the offense and the surprise play of University of Texas alum Jamaal Charles has steadied that run. Their team will deal with another huge set back as leading receiver Dwayne Bowe sits the next 4 games. The Steelers are looking to rebound from another disappointing loss to Cincinnati. The last time they fell to the Bengals, Big Ben and the curtain responded with a 10 point thwarting of the Chargers en route to a 5 game run. Expect these Steelers to pull off another string of wins.

Prediction: 38-10 Steelers

FPTW: Rashard Mendenhall – 100+ yards, 2 TD

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys came out flat last Sunday and never did get the right balance on offense. Marion Barber and the three headed monster that is the Cowboys running game should have a monster week against the exceptionally weak Washington rush defense. With Clinton Portis out, we still don’t know who will be the primary back for the Redskins or if they will even be a factor. Jason Campbell still has not shown any kind of life in the passing game. Expect the ‘Boys to get back on track heading into their annual Thanksgiving Day game.

Prediction: 37-17 Cowboys

FPTW: Marion Barber – 100+ yards, 2 TD

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

Eli Manning and the slumping Giants got a much needed bye last week. This week they try not to match their early season 5 game winning streak with a 5 game losing streak. The Falcons are in just as big of a hole as they will play without star back Michael Turner. New York’s defense is seriously undermanned but shouldn’t have a problem containing Matt Ryan and a one-sided offense. Expect quite a few yards from Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs.

Prediction: 31-21 Giants

FPTW: Brandon Jacobs – 75+ yards, 2 TD

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Saints haven’t played particularly well the past 4 games but remain unblemished at 9 and 0. Drew Brees has just 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in those 4 games. Brees should get back on track this weekend as Tampa doesn’t really have much to offer on defense. The key will remain if the Saints defense can get back to playing well and if they can regain some balance on the offensive side. The Bucs looked great against Green Bay and the first half against Miami until the wheels came off. Josh Freeman will struggle trying to throw around Darren Sharper.

Prediction: 41-14 Saints

FPTW: Drew Brees – 300+ yards, 4 TD

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars

Maurice Jones-Drew made a lot of fantasy owners unhappy last week by taking a knee instead of scoring the go ahead touchdown. I expect MJD to make up for it this weekend with a monster day against the atrocious run defense of Buffalo. The Bills have allowed 784 rush yards in its last 4 games, including 232 total yards by Chris Johnson last week. MJD is coming into the game rushing for just under 100 per game. The Jags have stepped up on defense for a few weeks and should roll through Buffalo this week.

Prediction: 32-10 Jaguars

FPTW: Maurice Jones-Drew – 150+ yards, 2 TD

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

This game for the past few years has been called a chess match. Peyton Manning makes the first move by calling his audibles for the no-huddle offense and Ray Lewis responds with audibles of his own. Manning and the Colts have gotten the best of Lewis’ Ravens in the past. At the end of the day, I don’t think the Ravens have enough offense to keep up with Indy. Ray Rice is a stud for Baltimore but the passing game has dwindled the past few weeks, and the Colts are just finding ways to win right now.

Prediction: 27-17 Colts

FPTW: Derrick Mason – 100+ yards, TD

Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings showed that they are vulnerable last week against Detroit. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and newly discovered spark Justin Forsett had huge weeks and showed Matt Hasselbeck he can trust somebody. Adrian Peterson should have another monster day against a week defense but Seattle should keep the game close. Hasselbeck protects the ball well and the defense should keep Sidney Rice in check. I wouldn’t hold back from starting any Vikings in fantasy, but I have a feeling Jim Mora has something up his sleeve.

Prediction: 31-24 Vikings

FPTW: Adrian Peterson – 100+ yards, 2 TD

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

Kurt Warner has the Cardinals looking similar to the team that made it all the way to the Super Bowl a season ago. Only difference, Chris “Beanie” Wells has been running like a man possessed. Wells may have all but sealed the starting job away from Tim Hightower, but Hightower seems to be a better receiving option. The Rams played well against the Saints due to Steven Jackson coming into his own. He will see a load of carries again this week but Arizona’s rush defense poses a stronger threat.

Prediction: 42-27 Cardinals

FPTW: Kurt Warner – 330+ yards, 3 TD

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

The first time these teams played, I felt Denver was overrated and primed to disappoint off a big emotional high after beating the Patriots, but Denver scored 17 unanswered points to drop the Chargers. Fast forward to now, Denver has (finally) come back down to earth and looks sloppy on offense. Kyle Orton may not be 100 percent if he plays and that definitely favors the Chargers. We saw the return of the “Lights Out Dance” form Shawne Merriman so maybe he is back. LaDanian Tomlinson also looked like he may have regained his form. Another week of hefty work for LT and the Chargers should bolt.

Prediction: 28-10 Chargers

FPTW: LaDanian Tomlinson – 80+ yards, TD

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

The Bengals appear to be the hottest team in the league after an 18-12 humbling of the Steelers. Surprisingly, the Bengals are doing it with defense and rushing. Cedric Benson may or may not play but Larry Johnson could step in and provide some tough inside running. Imagine what this guy could do with support and an offensive line. Chad Ochocinco may not need to try his hand at bribing the referees this week; Oakland poses no threat for the streaking Bengals. New starting QB Brad Gradkowski might be able to spark the offense. He can’t be any less accurate than what we’ve seen from JaMarcus Russell.

Prediction: 35-9 Bengals

FPTW: Chad Ochocinco – 100+ yards, TD

New York Jets at New England Patriots

The Jets shocked everyone by stopping Tom Brady and the prolific Patriots offense back in September. Since that game the Jets have gone just 2 and 5 while the Pats have rallied to 5 and 2. Bill Belichick and the Pats are definitely looking to put away the Jets this time. Rex Ryan hasn’t spoken publicly about this game yet and probably shouldn’t. The Jets lost in heartbreaking fashion last week but should have been put away sooner. As long as New England stays away from 4th and 2 in this one, it shouldn’t be much to watch.

Prediction: 38-20 Patriots

FPTW: Tom Brady – 300+ yards, 3 TD

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

The Eagles lost Brian Westbrook for the second time due to a concussion giving LeSean McCoy more playing time and he has looked good. Donovan McNabb passed for a season high 450 yards last week and that doesn’t bode well for the Bears. Teams have been putting up monster numbers on Chicago and it doesn’t help that Jay Cutler keeps opposing offenses on the field. I’m beginning to wonder if it’s time to bring in Caleb Hanie, my high school teammate at Forney High in Texas. Yes I’m biased, but still, I’ll take Hanie and under 5 turnovers. Expect Asante Samuel and the rest of the Eagles’ secondary to have an interesting day.

Prediction: 37-20 Eagles

FPTW: Donovan McNabb – 300+ yards, 3 TD

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Houston has a good season going and looked really strong against Indianapolis. The Titans have looked even better, similar to last year’s playoff team. Vince Young has really sparked the entire team, but I’m sure it helps when you have Chris Johnson to hand the ball off to. Johnson racked up 232 total yards in last week’s win over Buffalo. This might actually turn into a really good Monday night game. A Tennessee victory and they can get right back into the thick of things in the AFC playoff race.

Prediction: 34-31 Titans

FPTW: Andre Johnson – 100+ yards, 2 TD

6 thoughts on “NFL Picks, Week 11

  1. Liked it. to the point. Had most of what I need to make decisions on Team games.

    Like it.

  2. Pingback: MOP Blog at MyOfficePool.ca » NFL Picks, Week 12

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